Nebraska Senate

Dan Osborn (independent) wins the Nebraska Senate seat

Polls

R +0.9 mean of 4 averages

Market

27% as of Oct 26, 2026

Resolves

Nov 3, 2026

What the sources say

Probability that the race subject resolves yes, from each source. The highest and the lowest are 9 points apart.

Kalshi

27%

Oct 26, 2026

DDHQ

18%

Oct 2, 2026

50+1

23%

Oct 26, 2026

What each source does to the polls

Each probability is turned back into the margin it implies and set against the polling average. A red bar means the source treats the subject as weaker than the polls show, a blue bar stronger.

Priced weaker for the subject than the polls (points)Priced stronger than the polls

Nebraska4 poll averages

Polls say R +0.9

Kalshi

−3.2

DDHQ

−5.0

50+1

−3.9

Ledger entries on this race

points apart

Nebraska: every source prices Osborn further behind than the polls have him

Unclassified

Closed October 8: the spread between sources was 9.5 points on the October 7 and 8 boards, from 10.9 on October 5, as FiftyPlusOne rose from 17.6% to 19.1% and Kalshi fell from 28.5% to 27.5%; DDHQ is at 18%. The split in markdown remains: against a poll average of Ricketts +0.9, the market takes 3 points off Osborn, the models 5 and 4.8, against his 5.1-point miss in 2024.

Kalshi 28%50+1 19%DDHQ 18%

Leans toward the models

The one measured miss for this candidate in this state is 5.1 points (2024). With the poll average at Ricketts +1.0, the models' markdowns of 4.9 and 5.1 match it and the market's 2.7 falls short. The October 3 lean went to the market, whose 5-point markdown then matched the miss against an average of Osborn +1.1; the averages updated October 2 to 4 moved the comparison, not the prices.

Why these should match, and what could explain the gap

The two models agree with each other to within 1.2 points, which usually marks a number the market also accepts. Here the market was 10.5 to 10.9 points above them on October 5 and 6, and is 9.5 and 8.4 above them now. All three mark Osborn's polling down: the market by 3 points, DDHQ by 5 and FiftyPlusOne by 4.8, against 5, 7 and 6.8 on October 2. The poll average moved from Osborn +1.1 on October 2 to Ricketts +1.0 on October 5 and Ricketts +0.9 now, after FiftyPlusOne's average moved from Ricketts +0.9 to +0.4 on October 6; 270toWin (October 2) has Ricketts +1.6 and Silver Bulletin (October 4) +0.6. The newest poll in the table, YouGov, fielded September 24 to October 3, has Osborn 48, Ricketts 47. Silver Bulletin's forecast, read once on October 4 and not a board source, takes 3.7 off its own average and has Osborn at 24.7%, between the market and the models.

In 2024 the final average had Osborn 1.6 behind and he lost by 6.7, a 5.1-point miss.
The contract may also carry the value of a 50-49-1 Senate, where Osborn would decide who organizes the chamber.
Trump carried Nebraska by 20.6. The only out-party challenger to win a midterm Senate race in a state that red since 2006 was Jon Tester in Montana that year.

Opened Oct 2, 2026 · Nebraska Senate

points apart

Kalshi's control price sits between its own seat prices and its seat-count market

Unclassified

Kalshi's control contract rose a point to 63.5% and its seat-count market, summed at 51 seats and above, fell to 64.8%: 1.3 points over control, from 3.8 on October 25. The thirteen seat contracts imply 60.5% to 61.7%, 1.8 points under control and under 2 for a second board. The entry closes if the seat-count leg stays under 2 on the next board.

Control contract 64%Seat-count market, 51 or more 65%Implied by 13 seat prices 61%

Why these should match, and what could explain the gap

All three numbers price the same event, a Democratic majority. The seat contracts are combined at the correlation Kalshi's own four-seat joint contract implies, 0.84, from 0.88; that contract was 56.5% on October 25 and 53.5% today. Across 0.69 to 0.95 the seats give 60.5% to 61.7%, with 51.1 expected Democratic seats. Since October 25 control rose from 62.5% to 63.5% while the seats fell slightly: Michigan 3 points to 65.5%, Georgia 1 to 94.65% and Maine 1 to 59.5%, against South Carolina up 4 to 24% and Florida and Nebraska up 2 each to 12.5% and 26.5%. The seat-count market went from 66.4% to 64.8%, so the two Kalshi markets that price the chamber directly moved toward each other after moving apart on October 25. It was 2 to 4.8 points above control from October 4 to 11, 2.1 on October 17, 2.4 and 2.2 on October 22 and 23, 0.4 on October 24 and 3.8 on October 25. The entry closes when both legs are under 2 points on two consecutive boards.

Seats outside the count: independents in Montana and Idaho, and Osborn in Nebraska at 26.5%. Any of them caucusing with Democrats adds a seat the thirteen contracts do not carry.
Settlement rule: the control contract pays on the party of the President pro tempore, so a 50-49-1 Senate organized with Osborn's vote would resolve for Democrats without a 51st seat.
Quoting and flow: the seat-count figure is summed from the midpoints of several bucket contracts, normalized to sum to 1, so wide quotes in the buckets can move it by points with no trade; the control contract is the headline market and may move on attention alone.

Opened Oct 2, 2026 · senate-control · Nebraska Senate

Market price over time

Daily closing price on each venue for the race subject.

Notes

Pete Ricketts (R) faces independent Dan Osborn, who has said he would caucus with neither party. An Osborn win does not add a Democratic seat, so it is excluded from the majority count; it matters for control only through how a 50-49-1 chamber would organize. Trump +20.6 in 2024.

Resolution

Dan Osborn is certified winner of the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate general election.

Benchmark markets

Nebraska Senate winner? — Dan OsbornKalshi · 27%

Candidate contract for Dan Osborn (ticker SENATENE-26-DOSB). Tracks the probability the independent wins; the separate Democratic contract trades under 1%.