North Carolina Senate
The Democratic candidate wins the open North Carolina Senate seat
What the sources say
Probability that the race subject resolves yes, from each source. The highest and the lowest are 15 points apart.
What each source does to the polls
Each probability is turned back into the margin it implies and set against the polling average. A red bar means the source treats the Democrat as weaker than the polls show, a blue bar stronger.
Market price over time
Daily closing price on each venue for the race subject.
Notes
Open seat following Thom Tillis (R) declining to seek re-election. Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R). Senate Leadership Fund paused its advertising here on October 2. Trump +3.2 in 2024.
Resolution
The Democratic nominee is certified winner of the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate general election.
Benchmark markets
Party-level contract (ticker SENATENC-26-D; the label shows the current nominee). Primary benchmark for the race subject: resolves on a Democrat being sworn in for the term beginning in 2027.