2026 U.S. Midterms
North Carolina Senate
The Democratic candidate wins the open North Carolina Senate seat
Rating
Likely D(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)
Our forecast
not yet published
Market
87% as of Jul 6, 2026
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026
Probability over time
Notes
Open seat following Thom Tillis (R) declining to seek re-election. Market lists Roy Cooper (D) and Michael Whatley (R).
Resolution
The Democratic nominee is certified winner of the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate general election.
Benchmark markets
North Carolina Senate winner? — Roy CooperKalshi · 87%
Candidate-level contract (Roy Cooper). Treated as the probability the Democratic candidate wins the open seat.