Florida Senate (special)
The Democratic candidate wins the Florida Senate special election
What the sources say
Probability that the race subject resolves yes, from each source. The highest and the lowest are 16 points apart.
What each source does to the polls
Each probability is turned back into the margin it implies and set against the polling average. A red bar means the source treats the Democrat as weaker than the polls show, a blue bar stronger.
Market price over time
Daily closing price on each venue for the race subject.
Notes
Special election for the remainder of Marco Rubio's term. Ashley Moody (R) holds the seat by appointment; Angie Nixon is the Democratic nominee. Trump +13.1 in 2024.
Resolution
The Democratic nominee is certified winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election.
Benchmark markets
Party-level contract (ticker SENATEFLS-26-D; the label shows the current nominee). Primary benchmark for the race subject: resolves on a Democrat being sworn in for the term beginning in 2027.