2026 U.S. Midterms
U.S. Senate control
Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 elections
Rating
Lean R(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)
Our forecast
not yet published
Market
43% as of Jul 6, 2026
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026
Probability over time
KalshiPolymarket
Notes
The 2026 Senate map structurally favors Republicans; a Democratic majority requires winning nearly every contested seat. Control probability therefore runs well below the House even in favorable national environments.
Resolution
Democrats (including members caucusing with them) control the U.S. Senate at the start of the 120th Congress, per certified 2026 general election results.
Benchmark markets
Primary Kalshi benchmark for Senate control; the Democratic Party contract price is the crowd probability for the race subject.
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? — Democratic PartyPolymarket · 46%
Polymarket cross-check on Senate control.