Maine Senate

The Democratic candidate wins the Maine Senate seat

Rating

Tossup(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)

Our forecast

not yet published

Market

64% as of Jul 6, 2026

Resolves

Nov 3, 2026

Probability over time

Notes

July 6: a published sexual-assault allegation has nominee Graham Platner weighing withdrawal (deadline July 13; party replacement deadline July 27). The subject is nominee-agnostic — any certified Democratic winner resolves YES.

Resolution

The Democratic nominee is certified winner of the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate general election. Maine uses ranked-choice voting; resolution follows the certified final-round result.

Benchmark markets

Maine Senate winner? — Graham PlatnerKalshi · 64%

Party-level contract (ticker SENATEME-26-D; the label shows the current nominee). Tracks the probability the Democratic candidate wins the seat regardless of nominee identity — confirmed July 6, when the contract rose 12 pts on a Democratic-nominee scandal (withdrawal-and-replacement pricing).