2026 U.S. Midterms

Florida Governor

The Democratic candidate wins the Florida governorship

Rating
Likely R(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)
Our forecast
not yet published
Market
24% as of Jul 6, 2026
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026

Probability over time

0%25%50%75%100%Feb 25May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 2624%

Notes

Open seat; the incumbent is term-limited. Republican primary scheduled August 18, 2026.

Resolution

The Democratic candidate is certified winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election.

Benchmark markets

Party-level contract for the open Florida governorship. Tracked on the Democratic outcome for sign consistency with other races.