2026 U.S. Midterms
U.S. House control
Democrats win control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 elections
Rating
Likely D(deterministic, Jul 3, 2026)
Our forecast
not yet published
Market
82% as of Jul 6, 2026
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026
Probability over time
KalshiPolymarket
Resolution
Democrats hold a majority of U.S. House seats at the start of the 120th Congress, per certified 2026 general election results.
Benchmark markets
Primary Kalshi benchmark for House control; the Democratic Party contract price is the crowd probability for the race subject.
Which party will win the House in 2026? — Democratic PartyPolymarket · 84%
Polymarket cross-check on House control; pricing divergence from Kalshi indicates venue-specific flow rather than new information.