Archived research. The era-1 framework is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Insider Investigator
What are insiders signaling through their actions?
Additional derived signals may emerge during analysis based on company-specific findings.
The Insider Investigator analyzes insider trading patterns (Form 4 filings) to assess whether management and directors are acting in alignment with shareholders.
Insider transactions are one of the few signals where management puts real money behind their views. This lens asks: "Are insiders buying, selling, or hedging — and what does the pattern tell us?"
Signals Produced
What This Lens Catches
Cluster buying
Example: Multiple executives buying during distress
Look for: Coordinated open market purchases
CEO/CFO buying
Example: C-suite buying open market shares
Look for: Form 4 filings from key executives
Cluster selling
Example: Multiple insiders selling before bad news
Look for: Coordinated sales timing
CFO selling pre-earnings
Example: CFO dumps shares before negative guidance
Look for: Transaction timing vs. material events
Routine 10b5-1
Example: Pre-scheduled selling for diversification
Look for: 10b5-1 plan disclosures
Excessive selling vs. compensation
Example: Selling more than granted
Look for: Net shares sold vs. compensation grants
Analysis Stages
Transaction Aggregation
What have insiders done in the past 12 months?
Pattern Analysis
Is this routine (10b5-1 plans) or discretionary?
Context Assessment
What was happening when they traded?
- Predict stock price movement
- Assess business fundamentals
- Evaluate accounting quality (that's Fugazi Filter)
- Make buy/sell recommendations
- Assess legal compliance of insider trades