Commodity Transmission
How does China's stimulus type drive commodity prices and EM resource currencies?
The Commodity Transmission lens maps how China's stimulus composition transmits through global commodity markets to emerging market resource exporters and global inflation dynamics. China consumes approximately 50% of global copper, 60% of iron ore, and 15% of crude oil. The type of stimulus matters as much as the scale: supply-side stimulus (infrastructure, manufacturing) historically drives industrial metals and bulk commodities, while demand-side stimulus (consumer spending, services) has a different commodity signature — more energy, agricultural products, and less steel/cement intensity.
Signals Produced
Commodity Demand Regime
COMMODITY_DEMAND_REGIME
EM Resource Impact
EM_RESOURCE_IMPACT
Analysis Stages
Commodity Demand Mapping
Which commodities respond to which type of China stimulus? Historical sensitivity analysis
Price Transmission Assessment
How are spot/futures prices reflecting current stimulus composition?
EM Resource Currency Impact
Are resource-exporting EM currencies (AUD, BRL, CLP, ZAR) responding to China demand signals?
Global Inflation Channel
Net inflationary or disinflationary impact of China commodity demand changes on global prices
Required Sources
Must Have
Level, 3/6/12mo change, LME inventory, China import volumes
FRED (PCOPPUSDM)
Level, trend, China port inventory
FRED (PIORECRUSDM) or commodity data
Import composition by commodity, volume vs price decomposition
FRED (IMPCH, EXPCH) + NBS
Enhances Analysis
Demand signal from China refinery throughput, strategic reserve builds
FRED (DCOILWTICO)
Industrial metals basket for manufacturing activity proxy
FRED (PALUMUSDM) or LME
AUD, BRL, CLP, ZAR, IDR vs USD — correlated with China demand
FRED bilateral rates
Shipping demand for bulk commodities — leading indicator of restocking
Financial data providers
New orders, raw material inventory, import component
NBS/Caixin (manual)
When This Lens Applies
Always applicable for China Stimulus Pivot theme. Commodity transmission is the primary global propagation channel.
Heightened Priority Triggers
- Copper price moves >10% in a quarter
- Iron ore price moves >15% in a month
- China raw material import volumes shift sharply
- AUD/USD or BRL/USD moves >5% correlated with China data