Trade Transmission
How are trade barriers transmitting through supply chains and prices to the real economy?
The Trade Transmission lens tracks how tariffs and trade barriers translate into real-world economic outcomes. Trade policy works through multiple channels — import prices, supply chain restructuring, consumer costs, export competitiveness — and each transmits at different speeds with different sectoral impacts. This lens identifies where tariff costs are landing (firm margins vs consumer prices), how supply chains are adapting, and whether trade barriers are producing their intended effects or generating unintended consequences.
Unlike monetary policy transmission, which operates through financial channels with relatively predictable lags, trade policy transmission is highly heterogeneous. A 15% universal tariff hits differently across sectors depending on import dependence, substitution elasticity, competitive structure, and inventory buffers. This lens maps those differential impacts and tracks the aggregate pass-through over time.
Signals Produced
Tariff Pass-Through
TARIFF_PASSTHROUGH
Supply Chain Adjustment
SUPPLY_CHAIN_ADJUSTMENT
Analysis Stages
Tariff Structure Mapping
Rates by authority, legal durability, effective weighted-average rate, product and country coverage
Import Price Pass-Through
Speed and completeness of cost transmission by sector; firm margin absorption vs consumer price impact
Supply Chain Response
Rerouting, reshoring, disruption evidence; inventory adjustment patterns; import origin shifts
Trade Balance Dynamics
Import/export volumes, deficit composition, front-loading effects, retaliatory tariff exposure
Required Sources
Must Have
Headline, non-petroleum, by end-use category
BLS (FRED: IR, IRNP)
Goods CPI, durables, apparel, food-at-home, new vehicles
BLS / BEA (FRED)
Goods deficit, import/export volumes, by country
Census Bureau (FRED: BOPGSTB)
Current rates by authority (Section 122, 232, 301), effective date, expiration
USTR, Federal Register
Enhances Analysis
New orders, supplier deliveries, prices paid, imports component
ISM
Intermediate demand stages, commodity breakdown
BLS (FRED)
Currency offset to tariff cost-push
FRED
Anecdotal reports on supply chain disruption, price pass-through
federalreserve.gov
Consumer spending response to price changes
Census Bureau (FRED)
Domestic manufacturing output response
Fed (FRED: INDPRO)
Trade rerouting evidence (China vs Vietnam, Mexico, etc.)
Census Bureau
Stockpiling ahead of tariffs, drawdown patterns
Census Bureau (FRED)
When This Lens Applies
Always applicable when active tariffs are affecting US trade flows. This is the primary lens for any tariff-anchored analysis.
Heightened Priority Triggers
- New tariff action announced or implemented (any Section authority)
- Import prices diverge from dollar-implied path (indicating tariff pass-through)
- Manufacturing PMI supplier deliveries spike (supply chain disruption)
- Trade balance shifts sharply (front-loading or demand destruction)
- Retaliatory tariffs imposed by trading partners