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REZI

Resideo Technologies, Inc.
Industrials · Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Fugazi Filter
Are the numbers trustworthy?
Stress Scanner
What breaks under stress?
Consolidation Calibrator
Is M&A creating value?
Insider Investigator
What are insiders telling us?
Regulatory Reader
What do regulators see?
5
Lenses Applied
7
Signals Analyzed
4
Debates Resolved
7
Forecast Markets
Price at Value
Feb 24, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

6 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis
Material Update2026-02-24

Q4 2025 Earnings Update: Leverage Thesis Partially Refuted

REZI reported record FY2025 results exceeding all outlook ranges. Actual leverage is 3.9x (not 5.5x per Spruce Point), OCF recovered to $453M, no goodwill impairment, and $75M Snap One synergies achieved 18 months early. FUNDING_FRAGILITY de-escalated from STRAINED to STRETCHED. Accounting and governance concerns remain open.

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The Central Question
"Is Spruce Point right about REZI's accounting concerns, or is this a profitable short squeeze setup?"

Spruce Point Capital issued a 'Strong Sell' report on January 27, 2026, alleging 25-50% downside. REZI subsequently reported record FY2025 results (revenue $7.5B, EBITDA $833M) and filed its 10-K with no goodwill impairment. Actual leverage is 3.9x (not 5.5x per Spruce Point). The company plans to split into two public companies in H2 2026. Updated February 24, 2026 with Q4 earnings data.

Executive Summary

Cross-lens roll-up assessment

REZI warrants HIGHER SCRUTINY but with reduced conviction in the capital structure distress thesis after Q4 2025 earnings. Actual covenant-relevant leverage is 3.9x (not 5.5x per Spruce Point), OCF recovered to $453M, FY2025 set records across revenue ($7.5B), EBITDA ($833M), and EPS ($2.68), and no goodwill impairment was recorded. However, structural governance and accounting integrity concerns persist: four CFOs/CAOs since 2018, OCF absent from compensation, and Spruce Point's methodology claims remain unverified.

Higher Scrutiny RequiredMEDIUM confidence

Despite Q4 2025 earnings de-escalating the capital structure distress thesis, convergent concerns across governance, accounting methodology, and regulatory exposure persist. Key triggers: ADI spin-off Form 10 filing (debt allocation), DEF14A 2026 (OCF reinstatement), and Q1-Q2 2026 EBITDA trajectory vs. guidance.

Key Takeaways

  • •FUNDING_FRAGILITY de-escalated to STRETCHED: Actual leverage 3.9x (not 5.5x); OCF recovered to $453M; 2026 guided EBITDA $935-985M implies further deleveraging
  • •ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY remains CONCERNING: Record results reduce motive but Snap One customer life, disclosure eliminations, and restructuring-as-non-recurring persist
  • •CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT remains QUESTIONABLE: $75M Snap One synergies and P&S growth (+4% organic) are encouraging, but exclusive brands decelerated and standalone cash flows undisclosed
  • •GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT remains MISALIGNED: No OCF reinstatement in compensation; no management buying; no Spruce Point response
  • •REGULATORY_EXPOSURE remains ELEVATED: Nebraska AG lawsuit not discussed on earnings call; no second state AG action

Key Tensions

  • •Spruce Point's leverage thesis partially refuted (5.5x was non-standard calculation; actual is 3.9x), but their accounting methodology concerns remain open
  • •P&S organic growth reversed the decline narrative, but ADI exclusive brands growth still well below pre-acquisition trajectory
  • •No goodwill impairment is a strong positive, but $75M synergies against $1.4B acquisition cost imply long payback period
  • •H2 2026 separation on track but Form 10 not filed — debt allocation remains the key unknown

Fugazi Filter

Are the numbers trustworthy?

About this lens

Dual-Axis Risk Classification

Position shows Accounting Integrity × Funding Fragility

ACCT. INTEGRITY →
ALARM.
CONCERN.
QUEST.
CLEAN
STABLE
STRETCHED
STRAINED
CRITICAL
FUNDING FRAGILITY →
Higher scrutiny required

Accounting practices raise questions that warrant deeper investigation before investment. The numbers may not fully reflect economic reality.

Key FindingsClick to expand details

Signal AssessmentsClick for full context

SignalAssessment
Accounting Integrity
CONCERNING
Governance Alignment
MISALIGNED

Model Debates

Cross-Lens Insights

Where Lenses Agree

  • Cash generation deterioration confirmed across three lenses
  • Governance incentive misalignment confirmed by two lenses
  • Acquisition value destruction signals converged

Where Lenses Differ

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT
Insider Investigator:MIXED — CD&R buying $288M+ suggests confidence
Fugazi Filter:MISALIGNED — management selling, metrics removed

The divergence between PE sponsor conviction and management selling is itself a finding. CD&R's strategic thesis is unknown.

The following publicly available documents were collected and extracted into a structured fact dossier that powered this analysis.

SEC Filing
  • Annual Report (10-K) — FY2025
  • Annual Report (10-K) — FY2024
  • Annual Report (10-K) — FY2023
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q) — Q3 2025
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q) — Q2 2025
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q) — Q1 2025
  • Proxy Statement (DEF 14A) — 2025
  • Current Report (8-K) — Jan 7, 2026
  • Current Report (8-K) — Honeywell Payment (Aug 2025)
Earnings Transcript
  • Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
  • Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
  • Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
  • Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Research Document
  • Spruce Point Capital Short Report
  • Nebraska AG Lawsuit Summary
  • Market Sentiment Summary