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AA Forecast Markets
Alcoa Corporation
5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
63%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will average LME aluminum price remain above $2,500/ton for FY2026?
85%
Likely Yes
57%85%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16): LME aluminum at $3,600+ with tight inventories
100% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Alcoa report FY2026 adjusted EPS (excluding one-time items) above $2.00?
82%
Likely Yes
45%82%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16): Adjusted EPS $1.40 = 70% of full-year threshold in one quarter
100% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Alcoa receive Western Australia EPA recommendation for bauxite mine approval by H1 2026?
37%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Alcoa report zero goodwill impairment charges in FY2026?
73%
Likely Yes
56%73%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16): No impairment taken; aluminum strength supports asset valuations
100% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Alcoa reduce net debt by more than $500M during FY2026?
50%
Likely No
38%50%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16): $219M debt redemption announced; interest expense guide cut
100% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Alcoa achieve full restart of San Ciprian smelter by year-end 2026?
48%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.270Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Alcoa report Q1 2026 revenue above $3.0 billion?
64%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.122Apr 20, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Jun 30, 2026
Will Alcoa receive Western Australia EPA recommendation for bauxite mine approval by H1 2026?Prediction: 37%
Dec 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Alcoa achieve full restart of San Ciprian smelter by year-end 2026? YESBrier: 0.27
Feb 15, 2027
Will Alcoa report FY2026 adjusted EPS (excluding one-time items) above $2.00?Prediction: 82%