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AA Forecast Markets

Alcoa Corporation

7
Active Markets
49%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 8, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will average LME aluminum price remain above $2,500/ton for FY2026?

Active
57%
Likely Yes
97% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Alcoa report FY2026 adjusted EPS (excluding one-time items) above $2.00?

Active
45%
Likely No
97% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Alcoa receive Western Australia EPA recommendation for bauxite mine approval by H1 2026?

Active
37%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Alcoa achieve full restart of San Ciprian smelter by year-end 2026?

Active
48%
Likely No
98% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Alcoa report Q1 2026 revenue above $3.0 billion?

Active
64%
Likely Yes
97% agreement
Apr 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Alcoa report zero goodwill impairment charges in FY2026?

Active
56%
Likely Yes
98% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Alcoa reduce net debt by more than $500M during FY2026?

Active
38%
Likely No
98% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Apr 30, 2026
Will Alcoa report Q1 2026 revenue above $3.0 billion?
Prediction: 64%
Jun 30, 2026
Will Alcoa receive Western Australia EPA recommendation for bauxite mine approval by H1 2026?
Prediction: 37%
Dec 31, 2026
Will Alcoa achieve full restart of San Ciprian smelter by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 48%
Jan 15, 2027
Will average LME aluminum price remain above $2,500/ton for FY2026?
Prediction: 57%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Alcoa report FY2026 adjusted EPS (excluding one-time items) above $2.00?
Prediction: 45%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Alcoa report zero goodwill impairment charges in FY2026?
Prediction: 56%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Alcoa reduce net debt by more than $500M during FY2026?
Prediction: 38%