Will Alcoa report FY2026 adjusted EPS (excluding one-time items) above $2.00?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q1 Adjusted EPS of $1.40 is 70% of the $2.00 threshold; annualized run-rate $5.60 provides massive buffer absent complete H2 collapse
Why This Question Matters
FY2025 net income of $1.16B was heavily driven by $1.06B in non-operating items. If Alcoa can deliver normalized (ex-one-time-items) EPS above $2.00 in FY2026, it validates recurring earnings power. Missing this would confirm the Fugazi Filter's QUESTIONABLE accounting concern — that headline earnings overstate true economics.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.40 represents 70% of the $2.00 full-year target in a single quarter. Annualized at current run-rate, adjusted EPS is $5.60 — almost 3x the threshold. For FY2026 adjusted EPS to fall below $2.00, the remaining 9 months would need to average $0.20 per quarter (essentially zero) — requiring a complete collapse of profitability. This scenario requires simultaneous aluminum price crash AND alumina weakness extending throughout 2026, which is inconsistent with Q2 guidance pointing to continued aluminum segment strength (+$55M favorable). Risks remain: Cyclone Narelle and Middle East conflict effects may partially unwind (H2 alumina stabilization), but Q1 already demonstrates $1.40 of baseline quarterly earnings power. Probability sharply up from baseline 0.45 to 0.82.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Alcoa reports FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.00 or higher, after excluding acquisition-related gains, goodwill impairments, and other non-recurring items. Resolves NO if adjusted EPS is below $2.00.
Resolution Source
Alcoa Q4 FY2026 earnings release or 10-K filing
Source Trigger
FY2025 net income of $1.16B heavily driven by $1.06B non-operating items; recurring earnings may be $100-200M
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