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Will Alcoa report FY2026 adjusted EPS (excluding one-time items) above $2.00?

Resolves February 15, 2027(226d)

IG: 0.80

Current Prediction

82%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement100%

Predictions1 runs

Last UpdatedApril 19, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

45%

Apr 8

+37pp

Current

82%

Apr 19

Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-16): Adjusted EPS $1.40 = 70% of full-year threshold in one quarter

Q1 Adjusted EPS of $1.40 is 70% of the $2.00 threshold; annualized run-rate $5.60 provides massive buffer absent complete H2 collapse

Why This Question Matters

FY2025 net income of $1.16B was heavily driven by $1.06B in non-operating items. If Alcoa can deliver normalized (ex-one-time-items) EPS above $2.00 in FY2026, it validates recurring earnings power. Missing this would confirm the Fugazi Filter's QUESTIONABLE accounting concern â€” that headline earnings overstate true economics.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

Range: 82% – 82%Aggregate: 82%

Individual Predictions(1 runs)

opusRun 1

82%

Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.40 represents 70% of the $2.00 full-year target in a single quarter. Annualized at current run-rate, adjusted EPS is $5.60 — almost 3x the threshold. For FY2026 adjusted EPS to fall below $2.00, the remaining 9 months would need to average $0.20 per quarter (essentially zero) — requiring a complete collapse of profitability. This scenario requires simultaneous aluminum price crash AND alumina weakness extending throughout 2026, which is inconsistent with Q2 guidance pointing to continued aluminum segment strength (+$55M favorable). Risks remain: Cyclone Narelle and Middle East conflict effects may partially unwind (H2 alumina stabilization), but Q1 already demonstrates $1.40 of baseline quarterly earnings power. Probability sharply up from baseline 0.45 to 0.82.

Q1 Adjusted EPS $1.40 = 70% of full-year threshold in one quarterAnnualized run-rate $5.60 vs $2.00 threshold provides massive bufferQ2 guide favorable; H2 would need collapse to miss

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Alcoa reports FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.00 or higher, after excluding acquisition-related gains, goodwill impairments, and other non-recurring items. Resolves NO if adjusted EPS is below $2.00.

Resolution Source

Alcoa Q4 FY2026 earnings release or 10-K filing

Source Trigger

FY2025 net income of $1.16B heavily driven by $1.06B non-operating items; recurring earnings may be $100-200M

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYHIGH

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