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ALK Forecast Markets
Alaska Air Group
5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
43%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will ALK report FY2026 adjusted EPS above $5.00 (guidance midpoint)?
10%
Likely No
38%10%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 1.00
Will ALK report positive unit economics on its European routes within the first full quarter of operation?
47%
Likely No
37%47%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will ALK's Net Debt/EBITDA fall below 2.5x by year-end 2026?
9%
Likely No
40%9%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will ALK's premium cabin revenue share exceed 38% of total passenger revenue by H2 2026?
58%
Likely Yes
50%58%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will ALK's loyalty program bank cash remuneration exceed $2.3B in FY2026?
78%
Likely Yes
58%78%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.36
Will ALK report Q1 2026 adjusted EPS above the high end of guidance (-$0.50)?
43%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.185Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will ALK complete the PSS cutover by end of Q2 2026 without a major operational disruption?
58%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.176Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.80
Resolution Timeline
May 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ALK report Q1 2026 adjusted EPS above the high end of guidance (-$0.50)? NOBrier: 0.18
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ALK complete the PSS cutover by end of Q2 2026 without a major operational disruption? YESBrier: 0.18
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK report positive unit economics on its European routes within the first full quarter of operation?Prediction: 47%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK's premium cabin revenue share exceed 38% of total passenger revenue by H2 2026?Prediction: 58%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK's loyalty program bank cash remuneration exceed $2.3B in FY2026?Prediction: 78%