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ALK Forecast Markets

Alaska Air Group

5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
43%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Apr 21, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will ALK report FY2026 adjusted EPS above $5.00 (guidance midpoint)?

Active
10%
Likely No
38%10%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will ALK report positive unit economics on its European routes within the first full quarter of operation?

Active
47%
Likely No
37%47%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will ALK's Net Debt/EBITDA fall below 2.5x by year-end 2026?

Active
9%
Likely No
40%9%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will ALK's premium cabin revenue share exceed 38% of total passenger revenue by H2 2026?

Active
58%
Likely Yes
50%58%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will ALK's loyalty program bank cash remuneration exceed $2.3B in FY2026?

Active
78%
Likely Yes
58%78%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.36

Will ALK report Q1 2026 adjusted EPS above the high end of guidance (-$0.50)?

Resolved
43%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.185
Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will ALK complete the PSS cutover by end of Q2 2026 without a major operational disruption?

Resolved
58%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.176
Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.80

Resolution Timeline

May 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ALK report Q1 2026 adjusted EPS above the high end of guidance (-$0.50)?
NOBrier: 0.18
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ALK complete the PSS cutover by end of Q2 2026 without a major operational disruption?
YESBrier: 0.18
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK report FY2026 adjusted EPS above $5.00 (guidance midpoint)?
Prediction: 10%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK report positive unit economics on its European routes within the first full quarter of operation?
Prediction: 47%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK's Net Debt/EBITDA fall below 2.5x by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 9%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK's premium cabin revenue share exceed 38% of total passenger revenue by H2 2026?
Prediction: 58%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ALK's loyalty program bank cash remuneration exceed $2.3B in FY2026?
Prediction: 78%