Will ALK's premium cabin revenue share exceed 38% of total passenger revenue by H2 2026?

The premium trajectory has clear momentum: +8% YoY Q1, first-class positive unit revenues at +5% capacity, retrofits >90% complete heading into summer. This is the decisive test for the premium thesis because it's asking specifically about share crossing 38%. Entering Q1 at 36% baseline and growing premium at +8% vs main cabin ~0-1% lifts the share meaningfully. H2 seasonally has more leisure mix (main cabin bump) but the structural shift from retrofits adds steady premium capacity. The Gravy Gauge DURABLE upgrade reflects this durability.

The math: entering H2 at ~37% premium share (extrapolating Q1 +8% growth from the 36% Q4 2025 baseline) with retrofits adding capacity, crossing 38% requires premium to outgrow main cabin by another ~2 points in H2. That's consistent with current trajectory but not guaranteed — H2 main cabin seasonality typically bumps summer-peak leisure traffic. International premium performing 'particularly well' helps the mix because ALK's international cabins skew premium. Above coin-flip but not strongly.

The 38% threshold question depends on how ALK reports premium share and the specific H2 mix. Q1 Q1 premium growth of +8% with capacity +5% is strong unit revenue performance (~+3% yield) and comes before retrofits are fully complete. Once complete by summer, premium seat count is at run rate. Assuming main cabin holds at current trajectory, premium share mechanically reaches 38%+ in H2. The risk is disclosure granularity — 'premium cabin revenue share' may or may not be quantified explicitly by ALK. Probability above coin-flip on mechanics.

Baseline 50% moves up on Q1 data: premium +8% with first-class positive unit revenue at 5% capacity growth is decisive evidence the premium shift is structural. Retrofits >90% complete and international premium performing well. But H2 has summer leisure peak that favors main cabin volume. Probability lifts from 50% baseline to ~58% on the structural validation.

Gravy Gauge upgrade to DURABLE and the specific first-class unit revenue evidence are meaningful. The elasticity test Harrison acknowledged is real but for premium cabins specifically, demand has been sticky. H2 adds international peak (Tokyo/Seoul/Rome/London/Reykjavik) which is premium-heavy. Probability above coin-flip.

Premium trajectory is clearly positive but 38% is still 2+ points above current 36%. Requires premium to grow 5-6% more than main cabin in H2. Q1 data shows premium +8% with main cabin flat to mildly negative — if that gap holds in H2, 38% is achievable. Above coin-flip but not by much.

Premium share 36% → 38% needs 2pt shift. Q1 premium +8%, main cabin ~0%. Retrofits complete by summer. Probability lifts from baseline 50% on Q1 evidence.

First-class positive unit revenue at +5% capacity is strong. International premium 'performing particularly well.' 1.3M incremental premium seats by peak summer. Probability above coin-flip.

Path to 38% is plausible but not guaranteed. Summer leisure seasonality modestly offsets the premium trajectory. Slightly above coin-flip.