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CF Forecast Markets

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

8
Active Markets
35%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 9, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will US Gulf urea prices fall below $350/short ton before January 2027?

Active
30%
Likely No
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will CF Industries report FY2026 adjusted EBITDA above $2.5 billion?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will CF Industries receive all major environmental permits for Blue Point by December 2026?

Active
53%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will China increase urea export volumes above 7 million metric tons in calendar year 2026?

Active
19%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will Henry Hub natural gas prices average above $5/MMBtu for any calendar quarter in H2 2026?

Active
14%
Likely No
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CF Industries reduce share repurchase pace below $300M in any half-year period in 2026?

Active
38%
Likely No
94% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will the 45Q carbon sequestration tax credit be reduced or repealed by US legislation before January 2027?

Active
13%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CF Industries complete the Yazoo City facility restart by Q4 2026?

Active
57%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

Jan 15, 2027
Will US Gulf urea prices fall below $350/short ton before January 2027?
Prediction: 30%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the 45Q carbon sequestration tax credit be reduced or repealed by US legislation before January 2027?
Prediction: 13%
Feb 28, 2027
Will CF Industries report FY2026 adjusted EBITDA above $2.5 billion?
Prediction: 60%
Feb 28, 2027
Will CF Industries receive all major environmental permits for Blue Point by December 2026?
Prediction: 53%
Feb 28, 2027
Will Henry Hub natural gas prices average above $5/MMBtu for any calendar quarter in H2 2026?
Prediction: 14%
Feb 28, 2027
Will CF Industries complete the Yazoo City facility restart by Q4 2026?
Prediction: 57%
Mar 15, 2027
Will CF Industries reduce share repurchase pace below $300M in any half-year period in 2026?
Prediction: 38%
Mar 31, 2027
Will China increase urea export volumes above 7 million metric tons in calendar year 2026?
Prediction: 19%