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CLF Forecast Markets

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
48%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Apr 21, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will CLF and POSCO sign a definitive agreement for equity investment by September 30, 2026?

Active
32%
Likely No
48%32%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
95% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will US HRC steel prices average above $800/ton through H1 2026?

Active
87%
Likely Yes
52%87%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
96% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will CLF reduce net debt by at least $1B from year-end 2025 levels by December 31, 2026?

Active
10%
Likely No
30%10%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
98% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will CLF's Weirton transformer plant begin commercial production by December 31, 2026?

Active
48%
Likely No
52%48%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
95% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CLF CEO Lourenco Goncalves make additional open-market stock sales exceeding $5M by year-end 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Section 232 steel tariffs remain substantially unchanged through 2026?

Active
86%
Likely Yes
82%86%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-21)
97% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.40

Will CLF report Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA above $200M?

Resolved
44%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.194
Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.80

Resolution Timeline

Jun 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will CLF report Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA above $200M?
NOBrier: 0.19
Jul 31, 2026
Will US HRC steel prices average above $800/ton through H1 2026?
Prediction: 87%
Oct 15, 2026
Will CLF and POSCO sign a definitive agreement for equity investment by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 32%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Section 232 steel tariffs remain substantially unchanged through 2026?
Prediction: 86%
Jan 31, 2027
Will CLF CEO Lourenco Goncalves make additional open-market stock sales exceeding $5M by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Feb 15, 2027
Will CLF's Weirton transformer plant begin commercial production by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 48%
Mar 15, 2027
Will CLF reduce net debt by at least $1B from year-end 2025 levels by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 10%