Will US HRC steel prices average above $800/ton through H1 2026?

CLF's Q1 2026 ASP reached $1,048/ton, Q2 guided to $1,108. Even with CLF's typical premium to Midwest HRC spot (from auto and coated product mix), the implied underlying Midwest HRC in Q1 is comfortably above $800/ton — likely in the $850-950 range given typical CLF-to-HRC spreads. Imports at 2009 lows and melted-and-poured enforcement deepening are fundamentally supply-constraining. Q2 pricing guide further up implies HRC is accelerating, not fading. For the H1 average to fall below $800 would require Q1 to be well below $800 — which is inconsistent with CLF's reported ASP. This is essentially resolved in favor of YES barring data series methodology issues.

Midwest HRC prices in Q1 2026 were running in the $850-900 range per industry reports (consistent with CLF's $1,048 ASP with ~$150 product-mix premium). Q2 is tracking higher. For the H1 average to land below $800 would require a sharp reversal in the remaining weeks of Q2 — possible but inconsistent with Q2 guidance still up. Residual risk: demand shock (recession) or tariff modification mid-quarter. Both tail risks are real but not baseline expectations. Price around 86% — very likely YES but not certain.

The math is straightforward. Q1 HRC Midwest averaged comfortably above $800 based on CLF's $1,048 ASP with normal mix adjustments. Q2 guidance points higher. Even if Q2 landed exactly at $800, the Q1 overshoot would carry the H1 average. The resolution criterion is average for H1 (Jan-Jun) above $800/ton. Unless there's a catastrophic demand collapse in May-June, this resolves YES. Probability ~90%.

CLF's reported ASP of $1,048 in Q1 and guidance of $1,108 for Q2 translates to an implied Midwest HRC spot in the $800-900 range for Q1 and higher for Q2. Tariff environment is the strongest in years — Section 232 at 25% with derivatives added, pig iron tariffs functional, imports at 2009 lows. The primary risk is methodology discrepancy between Steel Benchmarker/CRU indices and CLF's realized pricing. But even with a $100 downward adjustment, Q1 HRC is comfortably above $800. Lean strongly YES at 87%.

I'll flag some conservatism: CLF's ASP includes significant coated, auto-grade, and plate premium over base HRC. Typical spread is $100-200 over Midwest HRC spot. So $1,048 ASP implies Midwest HRC in the $850-950 range, which is well above $800. However, the question asks about the average for H1 — if Q2 weakens unexpectedly in June, the tail risk is real. Still very likely YES at around 84%.

The baseline was 52% because Q1 data hadn't landed. Now Q1 is in: CLF's ASP of $1,048 and the fact that imports are at 2009 lows removes most of the downside risk on H1 HRC pricing. Q2 guide up reinforces. Probability should move decisively up — to 88%.

CLF Q1 ASP $1,048, Q2 guide $1,108 — HRC is well supported. Tariff environment strong. H1 average above $800 is very likely.

Strong Q1 pricing data, guidance continues up. Primary risk is H1 methodology (Jan-Jun average). Q1 overshoot likely carries. Around 85%.

Pricing moved from uncertain to resolved-ish. Q1 clearly above $800, Q2 guide above $800. Only late-Q2 shock could drop the average. 86%.