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DOW Forecast Markets

Dow Inc.

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
31%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Apr 28, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will DOW announce a second dividend cut before March 31, 2027?

Active
12%
Likely No
30%12%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will DOW disclose a Transform to Outperform run-rate exceeding $1.0B cost savings by Q2 2026 earnings?

Active
78%
Likely Yes
55%78%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
93% agreement
Aug 1, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will S&P Global Ratings downgrade DOW to BBB- (or lower) by December 31, 2026?

Active
10%
Likely No
25%10%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
95% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will DOW disclose a Sadara JV impairment charge before December 31, 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
25%30%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
88% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will DOW stock close above $50.00 on any trading day before December 31, 2026?

Active
58%
Likely Yes
30%58%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will an activist investor disclose a material stake in DOW before December 31, 2026?

Active
8%
Likely No
15%8%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
95% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will LyondellBasell (LYB) or Westlake (WLK) announce material capacity curtailment before December 31, 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
18%35%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-23)
90% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will DOW report Q1 2026 operating EBITDA of at least $1.0B?

Resolved
20%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.040
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.80

Resolution Timeline

May 1, 2026RESOLVED
Will DOW report Q1 2026 operating EBITDA of at least $1.0B?
NOBrier: 0.04
Aug 1, 2026
Will DOW disclose a Transform to Outperform run-rate exceeding $1.0B cost savings by Q2 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 78%
Dec 31, 2026
Will S&P Global Ratings downgrade DOW to BBB- (or lower) by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 10%
Dec 31, 2026
Will DOW disclose a Sadara JV impairment charge before December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Dec 31, 2026
Will DOW stock close above $50.00 on any trading day before December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 58%
Dec 31, 2026
Will an activist investor disclose a material stake in DOW before December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 8%
Dec 31, 2026
Will LyondellBasell (LYB) or Westlake (WLK) announce material capacity curtailment before December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Mar 31, 2027
Will DOW announce a second dividend cut before March 31, 2027?
Prediction: 12%