Will DOW announce a second dividend cut before March 31, 2027?

Roadkill Radar put 30-40% probability on a second cut. I lean toward the lower end because: (1) Carter takes over July 2026 — new CEO cutting dividend in first 3-6 months would be an early-distress signal inconsistent with the 'clean handoff' narrative; (2) NOVA $1.2B cash landing in 2026 provides bridge; (3) T2O run-rate building provides visible EBITDA tailwind heading into 2027. A cut is most likely if Q1/Q2 EBITDA materially misses guide AND NOVA is delayed AND T2O disappoints. Conjunction of multiple failures needed. ~28%.

Committee range was 30-40%. Time window extends to 2027-03-31, which captures the Q4 2026 dividend decision (Carter's first test) and Q1 2027 full-year budget framing. If structural-decline scenario (B in Black Swan, 15-20% probability) materializes, dividend cut becomes near-certain. If cyclical recovery framework holds, cut is avoidable. Balance: ~30-35%.

Historical base rate: BBB chemicals cutting dividend twice within 24 months is uncommon unless cycle extends beyond expectations. Dow's $0.35/qtr post-cut is sustainable at FY25-level EBITDA ($3.26B) with Macquarie + NOVA + T2O. The structural cut driver would be if mid-cycle EBITDA resets from $5.5-6B to $4-5B, which is 25-35% committee probability. Roughly matches roadkill-radar's estimate. ~30%.

Committee estimate 30-40%. Anchoring mid-point of range at 35% then adjusting: Carter's political cost of early cut (~5pp downward), NOVA bridge certainty (~3pp downward), structural-decline tail (~3pp upward). Net ~30%.

2026 is structurally a cash-burn year per committee. Organic FCF negative ~$1.5-2B/yr; NOVA $1.2B + Macquarie $3B (complete) provide bridge. Dividend at $0.35/qtr costs ~$1B/yr. If Q1/Q2 2026 EBITDA rolls in at $750-850M/qtr and T2O doesn't accelerate, Carter's Q4 2026 decision becomes harder. 30-35%.

Second dividend cut in 15-24 months after first cut would be unprecedented at Dow. Management has already demonstrated willingness to cut under pressure — meaning they have the lever but are unlikely to use it absent extreme scenarios. New CEO Carter faces choice between maintaining at $0.35 (manageable) vs. cutting to strengthen balance sheet (optional given liquidity). Base case is maintain. ~28%.

Committee estimate 30-40%. Base case maintain dividend given NOVA bridge and T2O trajectory. Cut scenario requires materialization of cycle-extension or structural-decline tail (~25%). Around 30%.

Carter Q4 2026 decision is the key pivot. If EBITDA trajectory improves, dividend held. If EBITDA weakens, cut probable. ~30-35%.

Consistent with committee 30-40% range. Liquidity sufficient for maintain absent EBITDA shock. Structural-decline tail contributes baseline probability. ~30%.