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FCX Forecast Markets

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

6
Active Markets
2
Resolved
39%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Apr 5, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will Indonesia announce Contract of Work extension terms for Grasberg that reduce FCX's economic share by 2026 year-end?

Active
18%
Likely No
28%18%after Q1 2026 earnings — Indonesian MOU signed Feb 2026
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Grasberg PB2/3 underground mill throughput reach 80% of nameplate capacity by Q3 2026?

Active
38%
Likely No
92% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will FCX's leach initiative produce at least 300 million recoverable copper pounds in calendar year 2026?

Active
45%
Likely No
47%45%after Q1 2026 earnings — Leach initiative progress update
93% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will FCX announce a formal investment decision on the Bagdad mine expansion by year-end 2026?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
52%55%after Q1 2026 earnings — Bagdad decision progression
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will LME copper spot price fall below $4.00/lb for any consecutive 5-trading-day period by September 2026?

Active
8%
Likely No
13%8%after Q1 2026 earnings — Record copper prices confirm tight market
97% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will the securities class action against FCX survive a motion to dismiss by year-end 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
41%52%after Q1 2026 earnings — Calibration to historical MTD survival base rate
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FCX reduce FY2026 copper production guidance below the current range by Q3 2026 reporting?

Resolved
37%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.397
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will FCX beat consensus EPS estimates for Q1 2026 (reporting April 16)?

Resolved
55%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.203
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Apr 24, 2026RESOLVED
Will FCX beat consensus EPS estimates for Q1 2026 (reporting April 16)?
YESBrier: 0.20
Oct 15, 2026
Will LME copper spot price fall below $4.00/lb for any consecutive 5-trading-day period by September 2026?
Prediction: 8%
Nov 15, 2026
Will Grasberg PB2/3 underground mill throughput reach 80% of nameplate capacity by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 38%
Nov 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will FCX reduce FY2026 copper production guidance below the current range by Q3 2026 reporting?
YESBrier: 0.40
Jan 15, 2027
Will Indonesia announce Contract of Work extension terms for Grasberg that reduce FCX's economic share by 2026 year-end?
Prediction: 18%
Jan 15, 2027
Will FCX announce a formal investment decision on the Bagdad mine expansion by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 55%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the securities class action against FCX survive a motion to dismiss by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Feb 15, 2027
Will FCX's leach initiative produce at least 300 million recoverable copper pounds in calendar year 2026?
Prediction: 45%