Will FCX announce a formal investment decision on the Bagdad mine expansion by year-end 2026?

Management tone slightly more committed than pre-earnings. Specifically completing work to 'potentially greenlight' the project 'later this year.' Copper environment extremely favorable ($5.78 realized, record prices). Cash flow ample ($8.7B expected FY2026). Capex unchanged at $4.3B accommodates Bagdad. Balance sheet supportive. The main uncertainty is whether cost inflation pushes the capex estimate high enough to defer vs. approve.

Coin-flip. Management is clearly progressing toward a decision but has flexibility to defer given cost pressures. The Grasberg guidance cut creates some incentive to preserve near-term cash flow, which could push decision into 2027. However, no language suggested deferral. Ultimately the capex estimate from the re-testing is the deciding factor — which we don't have visibility to. 50%.

More bullish. The Q1 commentary describes tangible progression: engineering, vendor pricing, tailings work, no permits. These are pre-decision tasks typical of an imminent greenlight. Combined with record copper prices (providing excellent project economics) and ample cash flow, the decision is more likely than not. Management also mentioned that the expansion 'is moving toward an investment decision' in affirmative language. 58%.

Slightly above coin-flip. All signals point to management intending a 2026 decision but uncertainty remains on cost re-estimate magnitude. Industry-wide cost inflation (diesel, labor, steel, acid) could push the re-estimated capex to a level that forces deferral. However, copper price strength offsets some of this. 54%.

Coin-flip. Management language is carefully hedged ('potentially greenlight' not 'will greenlight'). The capex re-estimate is the inflection point. Without clarity on that number, and given the multiple cost pressures across the industry, 50% is appropriate.

Slightly bullish. Management has consistently signaled 2026 decision over multiple quarters. The work they're doing (engineering refinements, vendor pricing, tailings) is preparing for a decision, not avoiding one. The autonomous fleet underperformance may be a concern but not a deferral catalyst. 56%.

Management on track for H2 2026 decision. Strong copper prices. Cash flow supportive. 55%.

Slightly above coin-flip. Capex uncertainty balanced with operational momentum. 52%.

Multiple signals suggest 2026 decision. Moderate probability. 55%.