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IP Forecast Markets

International Paper Company

8
Active Markets
49%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Mar 26, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will IP realize at least $30/ton of its $70/ton NA containerboard price increase by Q3 2026?

Active
40%
Likely No
94% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will IP's Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA exceed the $760M high end of guidance?

Active
30%
Likely No
94% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will IP achieve FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA of at least $3.5B (low end of guidance)?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will IP maintain its current quarterly dividend rate ($0.4625/share) through end of 2026?

Active
73%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will IP's NA segment Adjusted EBITDA reach $2.6B or higher in FY2026?

Active
43%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will IP complete the EMEA spin-off by Q1 2027 (within 15 months of announcement)?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Apr 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will IP's NA box shipment growth outpace the US box industry by at least 2pp in H1 2026?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will IP's FY2026 non-GAAP adjustment items shrink below $300M (from ~$958M in FY2025)?

Active
42%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

May 15, 2026
Will IP's Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA exceed the $760M high end of guidance?
Prediction: 30%
Aug 15, 2026
Will IP's NA box shipment growth outpace the US box industry by at least 2pp in H1 2026?
Prediction: 60%
Nov 15, 2026
Will IP realize at least $30/ton of its $70/ton NA containerboard price increase by Q3 2026?
Prediction: 40%
Jan 31, 2027
Will IP maintain its current quarterly dividend rate ($0.4625/share) through end of 2026?
Prediction: 73%
Feb 28, 2027
Will IP achieve FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA of at least $3.5B (low end of guidance)?
Prediction: 55%
Feb 28, 2027
Will IP's NA segment Adjusted EBITDA reach $2.6B or higher in FY2026?
Prediction: 43%
Feb 28, 2027
Will IP's FY2026 non-GAAP adjustment items shrink below $300M (from ~$958M in FY2025)?
Prediction: 42%
Apr 15, 2027
Will IP complete the EMEA spin-off by Q1 2027 (within 15 months of announcement)?
Prediction: 52%