Will IP's NA box shipment growth outpace the US box industry by at least 2pp in H1 2026?

IP outperformed the industry by 3-4pp in Q4 2025, and the 2pp threshold in this question is below what they recently achieved. Management states the 2% outperformance assumption is based on wins already in hand (secured pipeline), not requiring new wins. The lighthouse model is deployed to 85% of box plants. Customer satisfaction is highest among NA competitors. On-time delivery improved from 92% to upper 90s%. These are structural improvements that don't reverse easily. The main risk is macro deterioration causing customer destocking, which could reduce absolute volumes even if IP outperforms relatively.

The Q4 2025 outperformance of 3-4pp may have been partially benefiting from seasonal effects and customer inventory rebuilds. Sustaining 2pp+ over a full half-year (H1 2026) is a different test than one strong quarter. However, the secured customer wins and service improvements provide structural support. The key question is whether macro headwinds (housing weakness, goods economy softness) disproportionately affect IP's customer mix vs. the industry average. IP's mix may be more tilted toward e-commerce and food/beverage (defensive), which would support relative outperformance.

The evidence for sustained outperformance is strong: secured wins in hand, highest customer satisfaction, dramatic OTD improvement, 85% lighthouse deployment. IP went from years of losing share to gaining share -- this inflection is driven by systemic operational improvements, not a one-time event. The 2pp threshold is conservative relative to recent performance (3-4pp). The main risk is a severe macro downturn causing industry-wide destocking, but even in that scenario, IP's improved service position should maintain relative outperformance. High confidence in this assessment.

IP's share gains are real and well-documented. The secured pipeline supports 2% outperformance without needing new wins. However, the industry growth rate matters: if the industry declines sharply, even a company gaining share might see absolute volume declines that complicate the relative measurement. The Fibre Box Association data methodology could also introduce noise. On balance, more likely than not to sustain 2pp+ given the structural improvements.

I'm moderately confident but recognize that sustained market share outperformance over a half-year is harder than a single strong quarter. Competitors will respond -- packaging is ultimately a commodity business where price matters. If IP tries to raise prices ($70/ton letter), some price-sensitive customers may shift volume to cheaper alternatives, potentially reducing the outperformance from 3-4pp to closer to 2pp. The 2pp threshold being at the low end of recent performance provides some margin of safety.

The balance of evidence favors sustained outperformance. The lighthouse model deployment, OTD improvements, and customer satisfaction gains are structural, not cyclical. The secured wins provide a floor. January 2026 started strong. The 2pp bar is achievable. ~60% probability reflects confidence in the operational improvements moderated by some competitive and macro uncertainty.

Strong operational improvements, secured wins, and 2pp is below recent 3-4pp performance. High probability of sustained outperformance.

More likely than not based on secured wins and operational improvements. Slight caution for H1 being a longer measurement period than the Q4 data point.

IP's competitive position improvements are well-documented and the 2pp threshold is conservative. Lean positive.