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LCID Forecast Markets
Lucid Group, Inc.
7
Active Markets
15%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Lucid achieve start of production for its midsize platform by December 31, 2026?
30%
Likely No
32%30%after April 14 filings — capital raise + CEO transition + Second Uber VPA (late 2028 Midsize Plus)
85% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 1.00
Will Lucid report positive automotive gross margin in Q1 2026?
6%
Likely No
16%6%after Q1 2026 preliminary earnings disclosed
90% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Lucid refinance its September 2026 convertible notes without additional dilution exceeding 10% of shares outstanding?
18%
Likely No
40%18%after April 14 $1.05B capital raise with PIF Series C convertible preferred
68% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Lucid achieve commercial robotaxi deployment with Uber by December 31, 2026?
5%
Likely No
8%5%after Second Uber VPA targets late 2028 for Midsize Plus (autonomy variant)
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Lucid deliver more than 30,000 vehicles in FY2026?
8%
Likely No
25%8%after Q1 2026 delivery shortfall to 3,093 + guidance reaffirmed at 25K-27K
88% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Lucid reduce days of inventory below 80 days by Q2 2026?
25%
Likely No
45%25%after Q1 2026 inventory build — produced 5,500 vs. delivered 3,093
78% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Lucid's Q1 2026 free cash flow burn be less than $1 billion?
15%
Likely No
52%15%after Q1 2026 preliminary earnings + April 14 capital raise
82% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Jan 31, 2027
Will Lucid achieve start of production for its midsize platform by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 30%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Lucid achieve commercial robotaxi deployment with Uber by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 5%