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LUV Forecast Markets

Southwest Airlines

7
Active Markets
39%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Mar 18, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
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7 markets

Will Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 RASM growth exceed +9.5% YoY?

Active
65%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Southwest Airlines achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS of $4.00 or higher?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 load factor decline more than 2 percentage points YoY?

Active
16%
Likely No
95% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 adjusted EPS exceed $0.45?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will jet fuel prices rise 30%+ from March 2026 levels by December 2026?

Active
18%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will Boeing deliver fewer than 56 737-8 aircraft to Southwest in 2026?

Active
28%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Elliott Investment Management reduce its Southwest Airlines stake below 5% by Q4 2026?

Active
19%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

May 15, 2026
Will Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 RASM growth exceed +9.5% YoY?
Prediction: 65%
May 15, 2026
Will Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 adjusted EPS exceed $0.45?
Prediction: 72%
Aug 15, 2026
Will Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 load factor decline more than 2 percentage points YoY?
Prediction: 16%
Jan 15, 2027
Will jet fuel prices rise 30%+ from March 2026 levels by December 2026?
Prediction: 18%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Southwest Airlines achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS of $4.00 or higher?
Prediction: 52%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Boeing deliver fewer than 56 737-8 aircraft to Southwest in 2026?
Prediction: 28%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Elliott Investment Management reduce its Southwest Airlines stake below 5% by Q4 2026?
Prediction: 19%