Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
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LUV Forecast Markets
Southwest Airlines
5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
40%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Southwest Airlines achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS of $4.00 or higher?
61%
Likely Yes
52%61%after Q1 2026 earnings
94% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 load factor decline more than 2 percentage points YoY?
12%
Likely No
16%12%after Q1 2026 earnings
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will jet fuel prices rise 30%+ from March 2026 levels by December 2026?
25%
Likely No
18%25%after Q1 2026 earnings
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will Boeing deliver fewer than 56 737-8 aircraft to Southwest in 2026?
28%
Likely No
97% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Elliott Investment Management reduce its Southwest Airlines stake below 5% by Q4 2026?
19%
Likely No
97% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.36
Will Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 RASM growth exceed +9.5% YoY?
65%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.122Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Southwest Airlines Q1 2026 adjusted EPS exceed $0.45?
72%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.078Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.60
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will Southwest Airlines Q2 2026 load factor decline more than 2 percentage points YoY?Prediction: 12%
Feb 15, 2027
Will Elliott Investment Management reduce its Southwest Airlines stake below 5% by Q4 2026?Prediction: 19%