Will Boeing deliver fewer than 56 737-8 aircraft to Southwest in 2026?

Q1 earnings contained no Boeing-specific disclosure — neither positive confirmation of delivery pace nor negative disclosure of slippage. Management did not raise fleet expectations, but also did not call out delivery shortfall risk. Capacity growth narrowing to ~2% FY is ambiguous — could be delivery conservatism or capacity discipline. Net: probability essentially unchanged from 0.28 prior. This is the cleanest 'no relevant new data' case among the five active markets.

Slight downward shift rationale: Q1 is late enough in the year that if Boeing were badly off schedule, typical disclosure practice would have flagged it. The absence of any Boeing warning in the Q1 call is mild positive evidence (no bad news is weak good news). Marginal decrement from 0.28 to 0.27.

Slight upward shift rationale: capacity narrowing to ~2% FY could signal Boeing-related delivery conservatism baked into guidance. Without explicit confirmation of delivery pace, and given 2025 industry-wide Boeing delays, the 'narrowed capacity' language is directionally consistent with delivery caution. Marginal increment from 0.28 to 0.30.

No direct new information on Boeing deliveries. Probability unchanged at 0.28.

Marginal upward shift. Capacity narrowing language is consistent with modest delivery slippage. No explicit confirmation otherwise.

Slight downward shift. Absence of Boeing concern in earnings call narrative is mildly positive. Management's disclosure norms argue for transparency on supplier risk if material.

No Boeing data change. Probability held at 0.28.

Absence of Boeing warning mildly positive. Slight drop to 0.27.

Capacity narrowed suggests mild delivery caution. Marginal uptick to 0.29.