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MSFT Forecast Markets
Microsoft Corporation
5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
49%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Microsoft disclose a Gaming-related impairment of $5B or more in the FY26 10-K?
48%
Likely No
42%48%after Q3 FY26 earnings (2026-04-29)
93% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will OpenAI represent more than 50% of Microsoft's total commercial RPO at Q4 FY26 reporting?
24%
Likely No
28%24%after Q3 FY26 earnings (2026-04-29)
93% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Microsoft's FY26 total capital expenditures exceed $150B?
58%
Likely Yes
48%58%after Q3 FY26 earnings (2026-04-29)
86% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the EU Commission designate Azure as a Digital Markets Act gatekeeper by December 31, 2026?
18%
Likely No
20%18%after Q3 FY26 earnings (2026-04-29)
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Microsoft's FY26 free cash flow come in below $55B?
72%
Likely Yes
45%72%after Q3 FY26 earnings (2026-04-29)
83% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Microsoft Cloud gross margin be at or above 65% in Q3 FY26?
56%
Likely Yes
May 31, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Azure constant-currency growth be at or above 38% in Q3 FY26?
66%
Likely Yes
May 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
May 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Azure constant-currency growth be at or above 38% in Q3 FY26?Prediction: 66%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Microsoft disclose a Gaming-related impairment of $5B or more in the FY26 10-K?Prediction: 48%
Aug 31, 2026
Will OpenAI represent more than 50% of Microsoft's total commercial RPO at Q4 FY26 reporting?Prediction: 24%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the EU Commission designate Azure as a Digital Markets Act gatekeeper by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 18%