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NOW Forecast Markets

ServiceNow, Inc.

12
Active Markets
3
Resolved
48%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Apr 28, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

15 markets

Will ServiceNow's DOJ revolving-door investigation reach a formal resolution (settlement, consent decree, or debarment action) by December 31, 2026?

Active
31%
Likely No
35%31%after Q1 2026 earnings: DOJ silence + time decay
90% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will ServiceNow's May 4, 2026 Financial Analyst Day long-range plan disclose a sustained subscription revenue growth trajectory of 20% or higher through FY2028?

Active
45%
Likely No
87% agreement
May 20, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will ServiceNow report Now Assist ACV exceeding $1B by the Q4 2026 earnings call?

Active
92%
Likely Yes
70%92%after Q1 2026 earnings: Now Assist FY target raised $1B -> $1.5B
96% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow's Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating margin meet or exceed 26.5%?

Active
78%
Likely Yes
90% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow's Q2 2026 organic cRPO growth (constant currency, ex-Armis/Veza/Pyramid inorganic contribution) fall below 18%?

Active
22%
Likely No
92% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow disclose that the Armis operating margin headwind has been reduced to approximately 0 basis points by the Q4 2026 earnings call?

Active
35%
Likely No
87% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow raise its Now Assist FY2026 ACV/NNARR target above $1.5B at or before the Q3 2026 earnings call?

Active
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Nov 7, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow disclose a specific Now Assist Pro Plus install-base attach rate (as a percentage of eligible customers or seats) at or before the Q4 2026 earnings call?

Active
38%
Likely No
90% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow's US Federal / Public Sector segment book at least 10 deals greater than $1M in BOTH Q2 2026 and Q3 2026?

Active
50%
Likely No
91% agreement
Nov 7, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will ServiceNow's subscription renewal rate fall below 97% in any quarter of FY2026?

Active
34%
Likely No
5%34%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-22) — renewal rate landed at 97% inclusive of Moveworks (down from 98% baseline); Armis ($7.75B, ~4-6x Moveworks scale) closed April 20 with termination-for-convenience contracts creating structural H2 2026 dilution risk
87% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.40

Will ServiceNow's goodwill plus acquired intangible assets exceed 40% of total assets in the first quarterly filing after Armis closes?

Active
71%
Likely Yes
40%71%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-22): Armis closed April 20 ahead of schedule; $2B Q1 ASR shrinks denominator
91% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36

Will any ServiceNow insider (CEO, CFO, or Board member) make an additional discretionary open-market share purchase by September 30, 2026?

Active
37%
Likely No
39%37%after Q1 2026 earnings update (2026-04-22) — no additional insider purchases disclosed
93% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.36

Will the ServiceNow-Armis $7.75B acquisition close by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
84%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.026
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will ServiceNow's organic cRPO growth (constant currency, ex-Moveworks) fall below 18% in Q1 2026?

Resolved
22%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.048
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will ServiceNow's Q1 2026 subscription revenue growth exceed 19% YoY on a constant currency basis?

Resolved
55%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.302
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

May 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ServiceNow's organic cRPO growth (constant currency, ex-Moveworks) fall below 18% in Q1 2026?
NOBrier: 0.05
May 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ServiceNow's Q1 2026 subscription revenue growth exceed 19% YoY on a constant currency basis?
NOBrier: 0.30
May 20, 2026
Will ServiceNow's May 4, 2026 Financial Analyst Day long-range plan disclose a sustained subscription revenue growth trajectory of 20% or higher through FY2028?
Prediction: 45%
Aug 15, 2026
Will ServiceNow's Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating margin meet or exceed 26.5%?
Prediction: 78%
Aug 15, 2026
Will ServiceNow's Q2 2026 organic cRPO growth (constant currency, ex-Armis/Veza/Pyramid inorganic contribution) fall below 18%?
Prediction: 22%
Oct 15, 2026
Will any ServiceNow insider (CEO, CFO, or Board member) make an additional discretionary open-market share purchase by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 37%
Nov 7, 2026
Will ServiceNow raise its Now Assist FY2026 ACV/NNARR target above $1.5B at or before the Q3 2026 earnings call?
Prediction: 30%
Nov 7, 2026
Will ServiceNow's US Federal / Public Sector segment book at least 10 deals greater than $1M in BOTH Q2 2026 and Q3 2026?
Prediction: 50%
Jan 15, 2027RESOLVED
Will the ServiceNow-Armis $7.75B acquisition close by December 31, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.03
Feb 15, 2027
Will ServiceNow report Now Assist ACV exceeding $1B by the Q4 2026 earnings call?
Prediction: 92%
Feb 15, 2027
Will ServiceNow disclose that the Armis operating margin headwind has been reduced to approximately 0 basis points by the Q4 2026 earnings call?
Prediction: 35%
Feb 15, 2027
Will ServiceNow disclose a specific Now Assist Pro Plus install-base attach rate (as a percentage of eligible customers or seats) at or before the Q4 2026 earnings call?
Prediction: 38%
Feb 15, 2027
Will ServiceNow's subscription renewal rate fall below 97% in any quarter of FY2026?
Prediction: 34%
Mar 15, 2027
Will ServiceNow's DOJ revolving-door investigation reach a formal resolution (settlement, consent decree, or debarment action) by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 31%
Mar 31, 2027
Will ServiceNow's goodwill plus acquired intangible assets exceed 40% of total assets in the first quarterly filing after Armis closes?
Prediction: 71%