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Will ServiceNow's Q2 2026 organic cRPO growth (constant currency, ex-Armis/Veza/Pyramid inorganic contribution) fall below 18%?

Resolves August 15, 2026(114d)
IG: 0.64

Why This Question Matters

REPLENISHMENT (follow-on from resolved now-q1-2026-organic-crpo-growth, which resolved NO / Q1 passed 18%). REVENUE_DURABILITY lost both active markets when Q1 organic cRPO and Q1 revenue growth resolved. Q2 cRPO guide implies ~18.25% organic (19.5% cc total less 125bps Armis), sitting right at the P1 monitoring threshold. A breach below 18% would escalate REVENUE_DURABILITY toward CONDITIONAL; staying above confirms the 'differently durable' Q1 update framing. Testable in late July, genuine threshold uncertainty.

REVENUE_DURABILITY

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if ServiceNow's Q2 2026 organic cRPO growth (constant currency, ex-Armis/Veza/Pyramid inorganic contribution) falls below 18% YoY as disclosed on the Q2 2026 earnings call or in accompanying materials. Resolves NO if organic cRPO growth is 18% or higher. Resolution uses the organic growth rate disclosed by management on the earnings call or in supplemental materials (ServiceNow has consistently provided organic vs total growth decomposition since the Moveworks acquisition). If management does not explicitly disclose an organic figure, resolution uses total reported cRPO cc growth minus the guided Armis contribution (~125bps) as a back-calculated proxy.

Resolution Source

ServiceNow Q2 2026 earnings release (8-K), supplemental data tables, and earnings call transcript

Source Trigger

Organic cRPO growth approaching 18% threshold (Q2 guide implies ~18.25%)

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYP1
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