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NVDA Forecast Markets
NVIDIA Corporation
7
Active Markets
16%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will NVIDIA's quarterly Data Center revenue decline sequentially in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?
8%
Likely No
14%8%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will NVIDIA's non-GAAP gross margin fall below 70% in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?
9%
Likely No
14%9%after Q4 FY2026 earnings — non-GAAP GM at 75.2% (+160bps QoQ), Q1 FY2027 guided 75.0%
95% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the DOJ file a formal antitrust complaint against NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?
19%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will aggregate hyperscaler AI capex growth decelerate below +20% YoY by Q2 CY2026?
7%
Likely No
11%7%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will custom AI ASICs account for more than 20% of hyperscaler AI compute capacity by end of CY2026?
14%
Likely No
20%14%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will U.S. export controls on AI chips be materially expanded beyond China by December 31, 2026?
24%
Likely No
25%24%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will OpenAI begin production deployment of custom Broadcom AI chips by December 31, 2026?
30%
Likely No
33%30%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will aggregate hyperscaler AI capex growth decelerate below +20% YoY by Q2 CY2026?Prediction: 7%
Sep 15, 2026
Will NVIDIA's quarterly Data Center revenue decline sequentially in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 8%
Sep 15, 2026
Will NVIDIA's non-GAAP gross margin fall below 70% in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 9%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the DOJ file a formal antitrust complaint against NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 19%
Jan 15, 2027
Will U.S. export controls on AI chips be materially expanded beyond China by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 24%
Jan 15, 2027
Will OpenAI begin production deployment of custom Broadcom AI chips by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 30%
Feb 15, 2027
Will custom AI ASICs account for more than 20% of hyperscaler AI compute capacity by end of CY2026?Prediction: 14%