Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
Back to Forecasting
NVDA Forecast Markets
NVIDIA Corporation
7
Active Markets
16%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will NVIDIA's quarterly Data Center revenue decline sequentially in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?
8%
Likely No
14%8%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will NVIDIA's non-GAAP gross margin fall below 70% in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?
9%
Likely No
14%9%after Q4 FY2026 earnings — non-GAAP GM at 75.2% (+160bps QoQ), Q1 FY2027 guided 75.0%
95% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the DOJ file a formal antitrust complaint against NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?
19%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will aggregate hyperscaler AI capex growth decelerate below +20% YoY by Q2 CY2026?
7%
Likely No
11%7%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will custom AI ASICs account for more than 20% of hyperscaler AI compute capacity by end of CY2026?
14%
Likely No
20%14%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will U.S. export controls on AI chips be materially expanded beyond China by December 31, 2026?
24%
Likely No
25%24%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will OpenAI begin production deployment of custom Broadcom AI chips by December 31, 2026?
30%
Likely No
33%30%after Q4 FY2026 earnings update
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will aggregate hyperscaler AI capex growth decelerate below +20% YoY by Q2 CY2026?Prediction: 7%
Sep 15, 2026
Will NVIDIA's quarterly Data Center revenue decline sequentially in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 8%
Sep 15, 2026
Will NVIDIA's non-GAAP gross margin fall below 70% in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 9%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the DOJ file a formal antitrust complaint against NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 19%
Jan 15, 2027
Will U.S. export controls on AI chips be materially expanded beyond China by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 24%
Jan 15, 2027
Will OpenAI begin production deployment of custom Broadcom AI chips by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 30%
Feb 15, 2027
Will custom AI ASICs account for more than 20% of hyperscaler AI compute capacity by end of CY2026?Prediction: 14%