Will NVIDIA's quarterly Data Center revenue decline sequentially in any quarter by Q2 FY2027?

The prior prediction window included three quarters: Q4 FY2026, Q1 FY2027, and Q2 FY2027. Q4 FY2026 is now resolved with emphatic +22% QoQ sequential growth ($51.0B to $62.3B), eliminating one of three resolution windows. Two remain. Q1 FY2027 guidance of $78B total implies ~$68-70B DC revenue (assuming ~90% DC share), which would represent another $6-8B sequential increase. This is not merely guidance -- Colette Kress explicitly stated NVIDIA expects 'sequential revenue growth throughout calendar 2026,' which covers the entire remaining resolution window through Q2 FY2027. The $95.2B in supply commitments extending into CY2027 represents locked-in demand that mechanically supports sequential growth. The only scenario producing a sequential decline in the remaining 2 quarters would be an exogenous shock -- sudden hyperscaler capex freeze, severe macro downturn, or abrupt competitive displacement at scale. None of these appear remotely imminent given $700B CSP capex trajectory. The Rubin transition (H2 CY2026) remains the only organic risk, but samples are already shipping and the Blackwell-to-Rubin overlap should prevent an air pocket.

With Q4 FY2026 showing record sequential dollar growth (+$11.1B QoQ), the trajectory has re-accelerated rather than decelerating. The prior context flagged Q2 FY2026's +7% QoQ as a potential deceleration signal -- Q3 (+22%) and Q4 (+22%) have definitively reversed that concern. However, I weight slightly higher than pure base case because: (1) the Rubin transition beginning H2 CY2026 creates potential product-cycle uncertainty in Q2 FY2027, (2) the committee's unresolved debate about capex cycle permanence remains valid even if deferred, and (3) there is a non-zero probability of a macro shock in the April-October 2026 window. The Groq acquisition and NVLink Fusion co-opting strategy strengthen NVIDIA's competitive position but do not eliminate the possibility of an exogenous demand shock. Q1 FY2027 appears essentially locked in via the $78B guide, so the real risk is concentrated entirely in Q2 FY2027 -- one single quarter. A single-quarter decline probability from a position of strength is quite low.

The question asks about an absolute sequential decline -- not deceleration. Even if QoQ growth slowed from +22% to +2%, that still resolves NO. This is a high hurdle. With Q4 resolved and Q1 guided to imply another $6-8B DC sequential increase, the entire resolution depends on Q2 FY2027 (reported ~August 2026). For Q2 FY2027 to show a sequential DC decline, DC revenue would need to be below Q1's ~$68-70B. Given $95.2B in supply commitments, $700B CSP capex trajectory, Vera Rubin samples already shipping (suggesting smooth transition), and management's explicit statement of sequential growth throughout CY2026, the probability is very low. The Groq acquisition eliminates a competing inference platform. The Anthropic $10B investment deepens GPU lock-in. NVLink Fusion co-opts rather than competes with ASICs. Every data point from Q4 reduces the probability further. The only path is a true black swan event, and 2 quarters is an extremely short window for such an event to both occur and flow through to revenue.

Q4 FY2026 delivered $62.3B in DC revenue, a record $11.1B sequential increase. This eliminates one of three resolution windows with emphatic growth. Q1 FY2027 is guided at $78B total (+/-2%), implying DC revenue of approximately $68-70B -- another $6-8B sequential gain. That leaves only Q2 FY2027 as the remaining risk quarter. For a sequential decline in Q2, something would need to cause DC revenue to drop below Q1's ~$70B level -- a massive reversal from a position of unprecedented demand strength. The hyperscaler capex environment has actually improved: CSP capex approaching $700B (up ~$120B from prior estimates). NVIDIA's $95.2B supply commitments extending into CY2027 represent forward-committed demand. Management's explicit statement of sequential growth throughout CY2026 is a forward-looking assertion covering the full resolution window. The Vera Rubin transition risk is mitigated by samples already shipping to customers and production on track for H2 CY2026, suggesting product overlap rather than a gap.

The resolution window has narrowed from 3 quarters to effectively 1 quarter (Q2 FY2027), since Q4 FY2026 delivered +22% QoQ growth and Q1 FY2027 guidance implies continued strong sequential growth. For a single quarter to produce an absolute sequential decline from a position of record demand, we would need: (1) a sudden, severe macroeconomic recession, (2) a synchronized hyperscaler capex freeze, or (3) a black swan geopolitical event. None of these have leading indicators visible in the current data. Supply constraints remain binding -- demand exceeds supply. The networking revenue sub-segment grew to $11.0B in Q4 (+34% QoQ, +263% YoY), providing an additional growth layer independent of pure GPU compute. The $95.2B supply commitment figure is new and represents the largest forward demand commitment NVIDIA has disclosed -- this is structural support against sequential decline. I assign this the lowest probability in the range because the data is unambiguously supportive of continued growth.

While the near-term evidence overwhelmingly supports continued sequential growth, I assign a slightly higher probability than my sonnet peers because I give more weight to tail risks in the Q2 FY2027 window: (1) product cycle transitions have historically caused brief air pockets -- while Vera Rubin overlap should prevent this, the Blackwell-to-Rubin transition is unprecedented in scale; (2) the Myth Meter's DIVERGING narrative-reality gap finding from the original analysis remains valid -- market treats current spending as floors, but the committee noted capex at 45-57% of hyperscaler revenue is historically unprecedented; (3) geopolitical risk (export control expansion, trade disruption) is not zero over a 6-month horizon. However, even weighting these more heavily, a sequential decline from $68-70B to below that level in Q2 FY2027 is a very high hurdle. I settle at 9% to acknowledge non-trivial but unlikely tail scenarios.

Q4 FY2026 DC revenue of $62.3B (+22% QoQ) eliminates one resolution window. Q1 FY2027 guided at $78B total implies ~$70B DC. Only Q2 FY2027 remains as a risk quarter. Management explicitly states sequential growth throughout CY2026. $95.2B supply commitments and $700B CSP capex trajectory support continued growth. Vera Rubin samples shipped -- transition risk is mitigated. A sequential decline requires a black swan in a 1-quarter window.

The data is unambiguous. Q4 delivered record sequential growth. Q1 is guided strongly. The resolution window is now just Q2 FY2027. NVIDIA has $95.2B in supply commitments. Hyperscaler capex is approaching $700B. Groq has been acquired, reducing competition. Anthropic committed $10B to NVIDIA infrastructure. Sequential decline from ~$70B DC revenue in a single quarter requires catastrophic demand destruction that no available signal supports. This is one of the lower-probability markets in the NVDA constellation.

Strong consensus that sequential decline probability has decreased materially since the prior prediction. Q4 FY2026 removed one window, Q1 FY2027 guidance removes another effectively. The only remaining risk is Q2 FY2027, and even there the Rubin transition overlap, supply commitments, and hyperscaler capex expansion argue against decline. I assign slightly higher than the lowest estimates to account for unknown unknowns -- geopolitical shocks, sudden AI winter sentiment, or regulatory disruption that cannot be predicted from current data. But even these scenarios would more likely cause deceleration than absolute decline in a single quarter.