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OKTA Forecast Markets
Okta, Inc.
6
Active Markets
2
Resolved
30%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will Okta's net retention rate fall below 105% in any reported quarter through Q2 FY2027?
38%
Likely No
94% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Okta disclose quantifiable AI agent identity revenue or customer metrics by Q2 FY2027 earnings?
35%
Likely No
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Okta confirm another infrastructure security breach by October 2026?
30%
Likely No
93% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will any Okta named executive officer make an open-market stock purchase by July 2026?
7%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Microsoft Entra be cited as a factor in documented Okta enterprise customer losses by Q2 FY2027?
50%
Likely No
91% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Okta's stock-based compensation decline below 22% of revenue in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?
15%
Likely No
94% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.36
Will Okta's Q4 FY2026 cRPO growth come in below the guided ~9% YoY?
27%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.073Mar 4, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Okta's initial FY2027 revenue guidance imply below 10% YoY growth?
39%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.372Mar 4, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Okta's Q4 FY2026 cRPO growth come in below the guided ~9% YoY? NOBrier: 0.07
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Okta's initial FY2027 revenue guidance imply below 10% YoY growth? YESBrier: 0.37
Jul 31, 2026
Will any Okta named executive officer make an open-market stock purchase by July 2026?Prediction: 7%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Okta's net retention rate fall below 105% in any reported quarter through Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 38%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Okta disclose quantifiable AI agent identity revenue or customer metrics by Q2 FY2027 earnings?Prediction: 35%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Microsoft Entra be cited as a factor in documented Okta enterprise customer losses by Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 50%
Sep 30, 2026
Will Okta's stock-based compensation decline below 22% of revenue in any quarter through Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 15%
Oct 31, 2026
Will Okta confirm another infrastructure security breach by October 2026?Prediction: 30%