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SCCO Forecast Markets
Southern Copper Corporation
8
Active Markets
32%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will SCCO's related-party transaction volume exceed $500M in FY2026?
68%
Likely Yes
66%68%after Grupo Mexico director appointed interim CEO (Apr 16); Tia Maria 2026 capex concentrates affiliate contracting
93% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Tia Maria reach 50% construction completion by year-end 2026?
54%
Likely Yes
50%54%after 4Q25 call: 24% at YE2025 plus $508M 2026 capex on $1.0B remaining = ~52% expected
93% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Tia Maria construction be disrupted by community protests by year-end 2026?
35%
Likely No
33%35%after CEO transition removes decades of Peruvian community-relations continuity
93% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will SCCO's FY2026 copper production fall below the 911,400 tonne guidance?
38%
Likely No
37%38%after CEO transition (Apr 7-16, 2026) + 4Q25 reaffirmed 911.4K tonne guide
93% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will the LME copper price average below $3.50/lb for any 6-month period in 2026?
8%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will SCCO's net cash cost per pound of copper exceed $1.00/lb in any 2026 quarter?
20%
Likely No
19%20%after Silver at $54.48/oz creates by-product credit concentration risk; 2026 cost +5% on lower production
95% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will minority shareholder derivative litigation be filed against SCCO or its directors by year-end 2026?
12%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Peru or Mexico introduce mining tax or royalty legislation affecting SCCO by year-end 2026?
21%
Likely No
20%21%after Elevated copper prices create fiscal incentive for resource nationalism
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Jan 15, 2027
Will the LME copper price average below $3.50/lb for any 6-month period in 2026?Prediction: 8%
Jan 31, 2027
Will minority shareholder derivative litigation be filed against SCCO or its directors by year-end 2026?Prediction: 12%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Peru or Mexico introduce mining tax or royalty legislation affecting SCCO by year-end 2026?Prediction: 21%
Feb 28, 2027
Will Tia Maria construction be disrupted by community protests by year-end 2026?Prediction: 35%
Feb 28, 2027
Will SCCO's FY2026 copper production fall below the 911,400 tonne guidance?Prediction: 38%
Feb 28, 2027
Will SCCO's net cash cost per pound of copper exceed $1.00/lb in any 2026 quarter?Prediction: 20%