Will Tia Maria reach 50% construction completion by year-end 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Updated capex math (24% + $508M/$1.0B) suggests ~52% completion by YE2026. Probability lifts from 0.50 to 0.54.
Why This Question Matters
Tia Maria is the only active growth project in the $20.5B program. Reaching 50% completion would be the first tangible evidence that the growth pipeline can deliver, de-escalating REGULATORY_EXPOSURE and partially validating the premium valuation. Failure to reach 50% would compound concerns about the capex program's feasibility.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
Updated data tighten the math: 24% complete at YE2025 + $508M/$1.0B remaining capex in 2026 implies ~52% completion by YE2026. The midpoint of 50% is approximately the expected outcome. However, completion-by-capex is an imperfect proxy — payment timing lags construction progress. Interim CEO transition creates small execution risk on project-level oversight. Probability nudges above the 50% baseline.
Management revised 2026 cash-out DOWN from ~$900M to $508M citing 'better payment terms' — a potential warning sign that either physical construction is slower than prior plan, or cash payments are back-loaded into 2027. Back-loaded payments may correspond to back-loaded physical progress. Probability closer to 50% than baseline 50%, with slight uplift on continued management commitment.
Management has strong incentives to deliver Tia Maria — it is the singular growth story and drives the 2028+ production ramp from 970K to 1.06M tonnes. Board approval for the $508M 2026 spend implies confidence in trajectory. With 24% base + ~$500M of $1.0B remaining = math-driven 50% threshold clearance. CEO transition is governance-level, not construction-level.
50% is a near-exact math threshold given the cash-out profile. Outcome depends on whether cash-out correlates with physical progress (often yes in mining construction, but with timing variance of ±5-10%). Near-50/50 probability with uncertainty.
The updated 4Q25 data strengthens the case: 24% + $508M progress = ~52%. Multiple management commitments at 4Q25 call reinforce mid-2027 completion target. CEO transition may marginally slow decision cycles but Tia Maria is in execution phase (not planning), so slowdown impact is limited.
Mining mega-projects rarely deliver on schedule. Peru-specific risk includes weather (high-altitude Arequipa), labor, and community dynamics (Tia Maria has decade-long opposition history). The math suggests 50%, but reality often shades 3-5 percentage points behind plan. Slight lean below 50%.
24% at YE2025 + $508M 2026 spend on $1.0B remaining implies ~52%. Near the threshold. Slight probability in favor of clearing 50%.
Threshold and expected outcome overlap closely. Execution risk pulls modestly back.
Management commitment plus capex math plus board approval outweighs CEO transition risk. Probability slightly above 50%.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if SCCO management reports Tia Maria construction at 50% or greater completion in the Q4 2026 earnings call or FY2026 10-K. Resolves NO if completion remains below 50% or construction is suspended.
Resolution Source
SCCO Q4 2026 earnings call transcript or FY2026 10-K
Source Trigger
Tia Maria reaches 50%+ construction completion on schedule
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