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WMT Forecast Markets

Walmart Inc.

7
Active Markets
14%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 19, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will Walmart miss or reduce FY2027 EPS guidance during FY2027?

Active
12%
Likely No
18%12%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
96% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Walmart report US comp store transaction count growth below 2% for two consecutive quarters in FY2027?

Active
16%
Likely No
19%16%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
97% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will US per-capita real grocery spending decline year-over-year in any 2026 quarterly BLS Consumer Expenditure release?

Active
18%
Likely No
21%18%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
93% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will Walmart Connect advertising revenue organic growth fall below 20% YoY in any FY2027 quarter?

Active
14%
Likely No
16%14%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Walmart report that global eCommerce has returned to operating losses in any FY2027 quarter?

Active
7%
Likely No
12%7%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
97% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will federal SNAP benefits be reduced or restricted by legislation signed into law by December 31, 2026?

Active
20%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will the FTC open a formal inquiry or investigation into retail media networks or first-party data advertising practices by December 31, 2026?

Active
11%
Likely No
10%11%after Q4 FY2026 earnings
87% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Jan 31, 2027
Will federal SNAP benefits be reduced or restricted by legislation signed into law by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 20%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the FTC open a formal inquiry or investigation into retail media networks or first-party data advertising practices by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 11%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Walmart miss or reduce FY2027 EPS guidance during FY2027?
Prediction: 12%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Walmart report US comp store transaction count growth below 2% for two consecutive quarters in FY2027?
Prediction: 16%
Mar 31, 2027
Will US per-capita real grocery spending decline year-over-year in any 2026 quarterly BLS Consumer Expenditure release?
Prediction: 18%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Walmart Connect advertising revenue organic growth fall below 20% YoY in any FY2027 quarter?
Prediction: 14%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Walmart report that global eCommerce has returned to operating losses in any FY2027 quarter?
Prediction: 7%