Will the FTC open a formal inquiry or investigation into retail media networks or first-party data advertising practices by December 31, 2026?

The FTC has not signaled specific interest in retail media networks, and its current enforcement priorities center on AI, Big Tech mergers, and existing consent decree enforcement. However, the $6.4B advertising revenue (up 46% from $4.4B) brings retail media closer to the scale threshold where regulators take notice. The commercial surveillance rulemaking pathway remains the most plausible route to a YES resolution, as it could encompass retail media data practices without requiring a dedicated inquiry. The broad resolution criteria (industry-wide inquiries count) provides meaningful probability uplift.

The scale effect is the primary upward driver. At $6.4B, Walmart's advertising business is now roughly 11% of Amazon's $56B, up from ~8% previously. The 46% growth rate is faster than Amazon's ad growth, meaning Walmart Connect is gaining relative significance. VIZIO's triple-digit growth expands the closed-loop data asset (19M+ SmartCast accounts) and deepens the first-party data moat that could attract regulatory attention. The enterprise-level elevation of digital businesses signals Walmart itself treats this as a core strategic asset, not a side business. However, the critical missing element remains any concrete precursor signal from the FTC -- no staff reports, no requests for information, no commissioner speeches flagging retail media.

Amazon's advertising business at $56B+ remains the dominant player that would be the primary target of any industry-wide inquiry. The FTC's historical pattern is to target the largest player first -- Amazon Ads is 9x Walmart Connect's scale. If the FTC were to open a retail media inquiry, it would likely begin with Amazon, and the timeline for such an action to formally commence within the remaining ~10 months is tight given no precursor signals exist. Walmart's growth, while impressive, does not change the industry dynamics that make Amazon the likely first target. The resolution criteria's inclusion of industry-wide inquiries is the main pathway, but even that requires the FTC to prioritize this novel area.

The Q4 FY2026 earnings update confirms accelerating advertising growth ($4.4B to $6.4B, +46%) and expanding data capabilities via VIZIO. This modestly increases regulatory visibility but provides no concrete evidence of FTC interest. The committee's original 5-15% range remains appropriate, with the scale increase warranting a slight upward adjustment from the previous aggregate of 0.10. The absence of any regulatory precursor signals -- no commissioner statements, no staff reports, no CIDs -- in the context of a 10-month resolution window keeps probability anchored near the low end of the range.

Timeline analysis: approximately 10 months remain until the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Initiating a formal FTC inquiry into a new regulatory area typically requires: (1) staff research and market study, (2) commissioner vote to authorize investigation, (3) formal action (CID issuance or public inquiry announcement). This process takes 12-24 months from initial interest signals. With zero precursor signals as of February 2026, completing even the initial stages by December 2026 is highly unlikely. The only plausible fast pathway is folding retail media into an existing broader investigation, but no such investigation targeting commercial data practices in advertising has been formally announced. The scale increase does not compress the regulatory timeline.

Calibrating against the previous aggregate of 0.10: the material update provides one upward pressure (scale increase to $6.4B, +46%) and one neutral signal (no FTC inquiry signals in earnings). The scale increase is meaningful -- $6.4B is now a top-5 US digital advertising business by revenue -- but the regulatory evidence base is entirely unchanged. A well-calibrated update should reflect modest upward adjustment of +1-2 percentage points, not a large shift. The previous ensemble showed tight consensus (stdDev 0.02) and all models at MEDIUM confidence, suggesting the assessment was well-grounded. Adjusting to 0.12 reflects the scale factor while respecting the unchanged regulatory landscape.

Direct assessment: advertising revenue up 46% to $6.4B increases visibility but no FTC signals exist. The committee's 5-15% range still anchors the estimate. Slight upward adjustment from 0.10 to reflect scale increase. The broad resolution criteria (industry-wide inquiries count) remains the primary probability driver.

Risk-weighted assessment: the scale increase is real but the risk of FTC action remains anchored by the complete absence of precursor signals. Risk-weighting prioritizes demonstrated regulatory interest over theoretical visibility thresholds. Amazon at $56B hasn't triggered action; Walmart at $6.4B is even less likely to be the catalyst. Maintaining at 0.10 as risk-weighted factors favor the null hypothesis.

Evidence-weighted assessment: the evidence base for regulatory action is unchanged -- zero FTC signals, zero commissioner statements, zero staff reports on retail media. The only new evidence is Walmart's scale increase, which is a company metric, not a regulatory metric. Evidence-weighted analysis discounts theoretical risk increases when no regulatory evidence supports the shift. Maintaining at committee midpoint of 0.10.