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AAPLActive

Will Apple's Greater China revenue decline more than 10% YoY in any quarter through Q4 FY2026?

Resolves November 15, 2026(109d)
IG: 0.68

Current Prediction

12%
Likely No
Model Agreement85%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 27, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 7% – 21%Aggregate: 12%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
12%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 2
20%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 3
21%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 1
16%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 2
14%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 3
11%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 1
7%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 2
7%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 3
10%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Apple reports Greater China segment revenue declining more than 10% YoY in any quarter from Q2 through Q4 FY2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution Source

Apple Inc. quarterly earnings reports (Form 10-Q or 8-K)

Source Trigger

Greater China revenue decline exceeding 10% YoY

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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