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AAPLActive

Will Apple's gross margin fall below 46% in any quarter through Q4 FY2026?

Resolves November 15, 2026(232d)
IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

2%
Likely No
Model Agreement92%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 27, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 2% – 14%Aggregate: 2%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
14%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 2
6%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 3
2%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 1
2%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 2
5%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 3
13%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 1
2%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 2
2%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 3
2%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Apple reports total company gross margin below 46.0% in Q2, Q3, or Q4 FY2026. Resolves NO if gross margin remains at or above 46.0% in all three quarters.

Resolution Source

Apple Inc. quarterly earnings reports (Form 10-Q or 8-K)

Source Trigger

Gross margin below 46% from memory pricing pressure

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM
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