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AAPLActive

Will Apple's Services revenue growth fall below 10% YoY in any quarter through Q4 FY2026?

Resolves November 15, 2026(232d)
IG: 0.72

Current Prediction

16%
Likely No
Model Agreement88%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 27, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 9% – 21%Aggregate: 16%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
20%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 2
13%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 3
21%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 1
9%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 2
14%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 3
20%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 1
11%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 2
16%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 3
21%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Apple reports Services revenue growth below 10.0% YoY in Q2, Q3, or Q4 FY2026. Resolves NO if Services growth remains at or above 10.0% in all three quarters.

Resolution Source

Apple Inc. quarterly earnings reports (Form 10-Q or 8-K)

Source Trigger

Services growth rate below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
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