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AAPLActive

Will Google's antitrust remedy restrict default search placement deals by end of 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(293d)
IG: 0.70

Current Prediction

40%
Likely No
Model Agreement75%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 27, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 28% – 43%Aggregate: 40%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
40%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 2
41%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 3
28%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 1
31%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 2
42%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 3
37%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 1
43%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 2
36%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 3
43%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the DOJ's remedy for US v. Google includes restrictions on exclusive or default search placement deals enacted or ordered by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no such restriction is enacted.

Resolution Source

US District Court docket for United States v. Google LLC

Source Trigger

Google antitrust remedy - search default restrictions proposed

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH
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