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AAPLActive

Will Apple's iPhone revenue fall below $60B in Q2 FY2026 (March quarter)?

Resolves May 15, 2026
IG: 0.75

Current Prediction

33%
Likely No
Model Agreement82%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedMarch 27, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 25% – 38%Aggregate: 33%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
36%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 2
25%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
opusRun 3
34%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 1
36%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 2
26%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
sonnetRun 3
33%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 1
29%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 2
38%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning
haikuRun 3
29%

Based on analysis of AAPL run AAPL-2026-03-27. See prediction-context.md.

See analysis lenses for detailed reasoning

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Apple reports Q2 FY2026 (quarter ending March 2026) iPhone revenue below $60.0 billion. Resolves NO if iPhone revenue is $60.0B or higher.

Resolution Source

Apple Inc. Q2 FY2026 earnings report (Form 10-Q or 8-K)

Source Trigger

iPhone revenue growth below 5% YoY in any quarter

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYHIGH
View AAPL Analysis

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