Will Autodesk's AECO segment report growth below 10% YoY in H1 FY2027?

AECO headline growth at +23% YoY (Q3 FY2026) with organic growth estimated at 15-18% after removing 300-500bps NTM inflation. For AECO to drop below 10%, we'd need roughly a 5-8pp organic deceleration on top of NTM normalization -- a significant shift in just 1-2 quarters. RPO at $7.4B (+20%) provides forward revenue visibility, and 93% subscription mix with auto-renewal provides significant revenue inertia. Construction recession probability is only 10-20% within 2 years; the probability of hitting specifically in H1 FY2027 is much lower. Base case is AECO growth decelerates toward 15-18% but stays well above 10%.

AECO organic growth at ~18-20% means even full NTM normalization (removing 500bps) leaves growth at 13-15%. A further >3-5pp decline to sub-10% requires a construction recession hitting within the specific H1 FY2027 window. Black Swan Beacon estimates 10-20% recession probability over 2 years, implying roughly 5-10% for this 6-month window. Even in a recession, subscription-heavy model with strong RPO would cushion near-term impact. Resolution requires below 10% in *either* quarter (two chances), which modestly increases probability, but committee assessment of DURABLE at E3 with HIGH confidence supports continued strong growth.

The math makes sub-10% AECO growth very difficult. Q3 FY2025 implied AECO revenue of ~$749M means Q1/Q2 FY2027 would need AECO revenue below ~$824M to show <10% growth. Given Q3 FY2026 was $921M and growing, even flat sequential performance would show strong YoY comparisons. Data staleness (113 days) introduces uncertainty -- Q4 FY2026 results could reveal unexpected weakness -- but RPO growth at +20% provides a floor on near-term revenue. NTM normalization could be lumpier than expected if billing transitions were concentrated in certain quarters, but this would more likely affect reported vs organic growth, not actual demand.

AECO growth needs to more than halve from 23% to below 10%. Even with NTM normalization and some cyclical softening, the math doesn't support sub-10% absent a genuine construction recession. RPO provides 2+ quarters of revenue visibility. The question essentially asks: will a construction crisis hit in the next 6 months? Black Swan Beacon says 10-20% probability over 2 years. For H1 FY2027 specifically, that's much lower. Government spending moderation is gradual, not cliff-like. AECO moat trajectory rated stable_to_widening with BIM mandates providing structural support.

For AECO to drop below 10%, you need either: (a) a sharp construction recession, (b) a customer churn event, or (c) a one-time billing anomaly from NTM transition. Option (a) has low probability in H1 FY2027 specifically. Option (b) is unlikely with 93% subscription and auto-renewal across 4M+ diversified subscribers. Option (c) is the most interesting -- NTM billing changes could create lumpy YoY comparisons if the NTM boost was concentrated in certain prior-year quarters. But even accounting for this risk, the base rate of 15-18% organic growth has substantial buffer above the 10% threshold. Geographic diversification (Americas 44%, EMEA 38%, APAC 18%) also reduces single-region shock risk.

The staleness of data (113 days from Q3 FY2026) warrants weighting. We're reasoning from Oct 2025 financials. Q4 FY2026 results expected late Feb 2026 could reveal AECO deceleration we cannot see. If Q4 showed AECO growth already declining to 15%, the trajectory toward sub-10% in Q1-Q2 FY2027 becomes more plausible if macro conditions deteriorate simultaneously. Government infrastructure spending (IIJA, CHIPS Act) moderation could be sharper than expected if political priorities shift. However, RPO at +20%, subscription mix, and diversified customer base still provide significant downside protection. Pricing this slightly higher than peers due to information gap.

AECO growing 23% headline, 15-18% organic. NTM normalization removes 3-5pp, still leaves 13-15% minimum. RPO at +20% supports forward revenue. Needs a construction demand shock to break below 10%, which is a low probability event in this timeframe. Subscription model provides revenue inertia.

23% headline growth, 15-18% organic, RPO +20%, 93% subscription mix. For below 10%, need a demand shock that hasn't materialized. Construction recession possible but low probability in H1 FY2027 specifically. Even if government spending moderates, that's gradual. 4M+ diversified subscribers with auto-renewal make rapid deceleration very unlikely.

AECO sub-10% growth requires more than NTM normalization -- it requires genuine demand destruction. Subscription model and RPO buffer make rapid deceleration very unlikely in a 2-quarter window. Even if government spending moderates, infrastructure project pipelines are multi-year. The question asks about a near-term timeframe where structural buffers (RPO, subscription, diversification) are strongest.