Will Autodesk report Q4 FY2026 non-GAAP operating margin at or above 38%?

Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP margin was exactly 38%, establishing the baseline. The pre-announcement of Q4 results above guidance on all key metrics is the strongest signal — it implies margins at or above the guided ~37.5% full-year level, and likely above Q3 given the restructuring tailwind. Q4 is seasonally the strongest quarter with highest revenue, which supports operating leverage. The restructuring charges ($135-160M) are excluded from non-GAAP, but the cost savings from 1,000 fewer employees flow through immediately. The consistent margin expansion trajectory (35% to 36% to 38%) and 41% target provide directional confidence.

The full-year guide of ~37.5% non-GAAP margin was set before the pre-announcement and represents the conservative baseline. With Q3 at 38% and margin expanding each quarter, the trajectory supports Q4 at or above 38%. The pre-announcement changes the calculus materially — management only pre-announces when results meaningfully exceed guidance. The NTM transition reduces reported margin by ~300bps, but this is already reflected in Q3's 38% (vs ~40.5% underlying). The key risk is that full-year math could theoretically allow Q4 below 38% if H1 margins were sufficiently above guide, but the pre-announcement makes this unlikely.

The margin expansion case is strong but I assign some residual risk to quarterly volatility. Full-year guidance of ~37.5% means the average needs to land there or above. If H1 (Q1-Q2) averaged ~37%, then Q3 at 38% and Q4 at ~37.5% would hit the full-year guide. The pre-announcement says 'above guidance' but doesn't specify which metrics — it could emphasize revenue and EPS while margins come in slightly below Q3. The Jan 2026 restructuring happened during Q4 (ending Jan 31), so the cost savings are partial at best for this quarter — the full benefit accrues in FY2027. However, the weight of evidence still strongly favors 38%+.

This is straightforward. Q3 non-GAAP margin was 38%. They pre-announced above guidance. Margin has expanded every quarter. Q4 is seasonally strong. The 38% bar is not a stretch target — it is the already-demonstrated level. The restructuring adds tailwind. The committee found 2/2 agreement on consistent margin expansion trajectory with 41% runway. The only scenario for NO is an unusual revenue mix issue or one-time cost that pushes Q4 below Q3 despite the pre-announcement — low probability.

The pre-announcement is the dominant signal, but I note that 'above guidance on all key metrics' could technically mean revenue, EPS, and billings beat guidance while non-GAAP margin comes in at 37.8% — above the guided ~37.5% but below the 38.0% threshold in this market. The full-year guide of ~37.5% suggests management was targeting something slightly below 38%. Revenue growth at 18% with operating leverage should support margins, but the NTM transition (~300bps headwind) is ongoing. The positive operating leverage confirmed by Revenue Revealer and Gravy Gauge cross-lens signals reinforce the margin expansion case.

I'm weighing the full-year math more heavily. If FY2026 full-year non-GAAP margin is guided at ~37.5%, and Q3 was 38%, the prior quarters may have been lower. For Q4 to land at exactly 38%, the full-year would need to come in above ~37.5% — which the pre-announcement suggests. But the Jan 2026 restructuring was executed during Q4 itself (ending Jan 31, 2026), meaning the headcount savings are minimal for this quarter while any transition costs or productivity loss could create drag. The Starboard extraction risk (Black Swan Beacon, 5-10% over 3 years) is background noise for this quarter. Net assessment: more likely than not above 38% but not overwhelming.

Clear pattern: margin expanding every period (35% to 36% to 38%). Pre-announced above guidance. Q4 strongest quarter. Restructuring helps non-GAAP. Already at 38% in Q3 — just needs to hold. Strong YES case.

Full-year guide of ~37.5% is below 38%, creating mathematical risk that Q4 could be slightly below Q3. But pre-announcement offsets this — above guidance means beating ~37.5%. The gap between 37.5% and 38.0% is narrow. Margin expansion trend is clear but not every quarter needs to be at or above the prior quarter. Lean YES with moderate confidence.

Weight of evidence clearly favors YES. Q3 at 38%, pre-announced above guidance, margin expanding consistently, 41% target, restructuring supports non-GAAP. The question is whether Q4 holds Q3 levels — with a pre-announcement above guidance, it most likely does. The NTM headwind is already reflected in Q3.