Will Autodesk's RPO growth exceed revenue growth in Q4 FY2026?

The 200bps positive spread (RPO 20% vs Revenue 18%) has persisted across recent quarters. Billings growth at 21% provides third independent confirmation that demand pipeline exceeds current-period revenue recognition. Subscription model at 93% creates revenue recognition smoothing that makes revenue growth inherently less volatile than bookings-driven RPO. The NTM transition shifting to direct sales may mechanically support RPO as direct contracts are longer-term. For the spread to flip, RPO growth would need to decelerate by more than revenue growth, which seems unlikely given billings at 21%.

NTM transition risk deserves deeper probing. The shift from indirect to direct (47% vs 37% prior) fundamentally changes how RPO is calculated — direct contracts may have longer terms, mechanically inflating RPO during transition. If Q4 represents normalization, RPO growth could decelerate while ratably-recognized revenue continues its smoother trajectory. However, BOTH RPO and billings exceed revenue growth by similar margins (2pp and 3pp), making it harder to attribute the entire spread to mechanical effects. If it were purely NTM-driven, billings and RPO would likely diverge.

Adversarial angle: Black Swan Beacon flagged 2-6% probability NRR is below expectations. If NRR is 95-100% rather than estimated 105-115%, RPO growth could be acquisition-heavy. But even in this scenario, for RPO growth to fall BELOW revenue growth requires a 200-300bps swing from 20% to below ~17-18% in one quarter — that requires actively negative booking dynamics, not just deceleration. Given billings at 21% in Q3, a sudden step-down seems unlikely. Management guidance and pre-announcements would likely have surfaced negative signals by now given results are expected late Feb 2026.

RPO growth exceeded revenue growth in Q3 by 200bps. Billings exceeded both at 21%. Committee confirmed this as a healthy demand signal with HIGH confidence. For this to reverse in a single quarter, something material would need to change — enterprise renewal failure, macro shock, or NTM transition cliff. None are evident. The base case is continuation of the positive spread.

The 200bps spread is positive but narrow. Enterprise contract lumpiness is a real risk — a single large EBA renewal slipping from Q4 to Q1 could erase a 200bps spread easily. Autodesk has large enterprise customers whose renewal timing is unpredictable. The NTM transition means comparison bases are shifting in non-obvious ways. Revenue Revealer flagged this as an escalation trigger specifically because it's plausible, not remote. The spread continuing is the base case but meaningful probability exists for it not holding.

Three independent metrics favor continuation: RPO at 20%, billings at 21%, revenue at 18% — all tell a consistent story of expanding demand. The question asks if RPO growth EXCEEDS revenue growth, not by how much. Even if RPO decelerates from 20% to 19%, it could still exceed revenue growth if revenue also decelerates. The structural dynamics of 93% subscription revenue with large backlog make it unlikely for RPO to collapse below revenue growth in a single quarter absent a crisis.

RPO growth has exceeded revenue growth in recent quarters with consistent 200bps spread. Billings growth at 21% confirms healthy pipeline. Subscription-heavy model at 93% creates underlying stability. Pattern of RPO outpacing revenue is well-established and likely to continue.

The NTM transition is the biggest wild card — shifting billing structure from indirect to direct changes RPO composition. Deferred revenue at only 8% growth while revenue grows 18% suggests mechanical shifts in the balance sheet. Committee resolved as benign but the gap was initially flagged by both analysts. Some caution warranted on whether these mechanical effects stabilize or reverse in Q4.

20% RPO vs 18% revenue is a healthy 200bps spread. Billings at 21% supports this. For the spread to flip negative, RPO growth would need to drop 3+ percentage points in one quarter, which is unlikely given strong billings momentum. The committee's HIGH confidence DURABLE classification supports continuation.