Will ALAB disclose a >25% single-customer revenue concentration in any FY2026 filing?

The Amazon warrant of $6.5B over 7 years implies ~$929M/year in average purchases. FY2025 revenue was $852.5M. Even if the warrant purchases are back-loaded, Amazon is almost certainly above 25% of current revenue. SEC rules (ASC 280 / Reg S-K Item 101) require disclosure of customers exceeding 10% of revenue in 10-K filings. If Amazon exceeds 10% (almost certain given the $6.5B commitment), it MUST be disclosed. The only question is whether the disclosure shows >25% specifically. Given that Amazon is the only confirmed hyperscaler customer and the warrant implies dominant purchasing volume, >25% is highly likely.

SEC 10-K filings require customer concentration disclosure above 10%. The Amazon warrant commitment strongly suggests Amazon exceeds this threshold. However, 'disclosure' depends on how ALAB reports. Some companies disclose concentration as a percentage range rather than exact numbers (e.g., 'Customer A exceeded 10% of revenue'). The question asks about >25%, which requires either exact disclosure or enough information to determine the percentage. ALAB has been deliberately vague about customer concentration to date — management mentions 'multiple hyperscalers' without quantifying. The FY2025 10-K (which may have already been filed or is pending) is the key document. If it doesn't disclose >25% concentration, it would suggest ALAB's customer base is broader than the warrant alone implies.

The $6.5B warrant covers product purchases including smart fabric switches, signal conditioning, AND optical engines over 7 years. If Amazon is purchasing across all three product categories, they are likely ALAB's largest customer by far. The hyperscaler AI infrastructure market has 4-5 major buyers, and Amazon has the deepest confirmed relationship. SEC disclosure requirements make it virtually certain we will learn the concentration level. The only uncertainty is whether Amazon is at exactly 25% or somewhat above/below. Given the warrant scale relative to total revenue, >25% is more likely than not.

The warrant math is suggestive: $6.5B over 7 years. But warrants have minimum purchase thresholds and escalation schedules — the purchasing may not be linear. In the early years of a 7-year agreement, Amazon may purchase less than $929M/year. If FY2026 revenue reaches $1.3-1.5B, Amazon would need to purchase >$325-375M to exceed 25%. This is plausible but not certain. Also, the question asks about 'any FY2026 filing' — the FY2025 10-K (filed in early 2026) would show FY2025 concentration, which may be higher given lower total revenue. So FY2025 concentration disclosure in a 2026-filed document could resolve this YES.

The question depends on two factors: (1) is Amazon actually >25% of revenue, and (2) will the filing disclose this clearly? On factor 1, the $6.5B warrant suggests yes, but the purchasing timeline is uncertain. On factor 2, SEC rules require the disclosure if it's true, but companies sometimes use indirect language ('one customer accounted for a significant portion'). The combination of probable concentration + probable disclosure pushes this above 50% but the dual uncertainty keeps it from being very high. If the FY2025 10-K has already been filed, we might already know.

SEC Regulation S-K Item 101(c)(1)(vii) and ASC 280 require disclosure of customers representing 10% or more of revenue. This is not optional — if Amazon exceeds 10%, it will be disclosed. The question is whether it exceeds 25% specifically. Given that the hyperscaler market has only 4-5 major buyers and Amazon has the deepest confirmed relationship (including a massive $6.5B warrant), exceeding 25% of a $852M revenue base is very plausible. As revenue scales to $1.3B+, the threshold rises proportionally, but Amazon's committed purchasing likely scales too.

The $6.5B warrant commitment over 7 years (~$929M/year average) against $852.5M FY2025 revenue makes Amazon almost certainly >25%. SEC rules require disclosure. This is a high-probability event.

Warrant is a commitment over 7 years, not annual guaranteed purchases. Early years may be lower. But even at 50% of average, Amazon would be ~$465M against a growing revenue base. If FY2026 revenue is $1.3B, $465M is 36% — well above 25%. The math strongly favors disclosure.

Amazon is the only confirmed major customer. The $6.5B warrant implies dominant purchasing relationship. SEC rules require disclosure. The most likely scenario is that FY2025 or FY2026 10-K filings will show Amazon above 25%. The uncertainty is about timing and exact percentage, not about whether concentration exists.