Will Amer Sports report Greater China regional growth below 15% in any quarter of FY2026?

Greater China grew 42% in Q4 2025, and the base is still relatively small (286 stores). The question asks about ANY quarter below 15%, which over 4 quarters has higher cumulative probability. However, ANTA's China retail expertise, continued store openings (35 more planned), and Salomon's strong brand momentum make sub-15% growth unlikely for any single quarter. The main risk is Q4 2026 where the 42% Q4 2025 base creates a very tough comparison. China macro headwinds are real but consumer premium spending (Arc'teryx, Salomon) tends to be more resilient than mass market.

Four quarterly chances to drop below 15% creates meaningful cumulative probability even if each individual quarter has low probability. Q4 2026 is the most vulnerable due to the 42% comparison. China macro uncertainty is genuine — CEO Zheng's explicit caution ('still a bit too early to say it's a very bullish situation') is notable from an ANTA-appointed CEO with deep China knowledge. If Chinese consumer sentiment deteriorates in H2 2026 (property market, youth unemployment), premium spending could decelerate faster than expected.

Salomon's brand momentum in China appears strong and 35 new stores provide mechanical growth support (new store openings contribute to reported growth independent of same-store trends). Even if same-store comps decelerate to mid-single digits, the new store contribution should keep regional growth above 15%. The key risk is if there's an external shock (geopolitical, major macro deterioration) that causes consumer pullback affecting even premium brands. I assign moderate probability — below 15% is a relatively generous threshold given the store expansion.

China macro uncertainty is genuine but Amer Sports is in the premium/aspirational segment that has held up better than mass market in China. The 42% Q4 base is a real concern for Q4 2026. With 35 new stores adding ~12% store count growth, reported growth has a mechanical floor. However, if same-store trends turn negative (possible in a China slowdown), overall growth could drop to 10-15% in a bad quarter. I assign ~32% probability — meaningful risk but below base case.

I'm more concerned about the law of large numbers. Going from 186 to 286 stores in 2025 was +54% store count growth, which mechanically supported 42% revenue growth. Going from 286 to 321 is only +12% store count. Same-store sales need to do more of the heavy lifting. If the sports style trend fades even modestly in China while the store base grows more slowly, a sub-15% quarter by Q3 or Q4 is plausible. China's consumer confidence data has been volatile.

The question spans 4 quarters with varying comparison bases. Q1 and Q2 likely easier comparisons than Q3 and Q4. The cumulative probability of at least one quarter below 15% is meaningful even if individual quarterly probability is 10-15%. ANTA's expertise and new stores help but cannot overcome a major macro downturn. I estimate ~33% cumulative probability.

Strong brand momentum, ANTA expertise, and 35 new stores support growth. Q4 comparison is tough. China macro risk exists but premium segment is resilient. Below 15% in any quarter is possible but not the base case.

Four quarters provides multiple chances for a sub-15% reading. New store growth slowing from 54% to 12%. Main risk is Q4 tough comparison. Moderate probability overall.

ANTA China expertise is the strongest mitigant. New stores add mechanical growth. CEO's caution suggests awareness but not alarm. Premium brands tend to maintain growth longer. Below 15% requires material macro deterioration or brand momentum loss.