Will the Monday.com-Asana revenue growth rate gap narrow to less than 15 percentage points by Q2 FY2027?

The gap narrowing to <15pp requires a ~3pp shift from 18pp current run-rate. This could come from Asana accelerating ~3pp (9% to 12%) or Monday.com decelerating ~3pp (27% to 24%) or some combination. Asana's deceleration trajectory is deeply entrenched: 47% to 25% to 19% to 11% to 9% over five periods -- this is gravitational, not cyclical. The enterprise pivot under Rogers is E0-E1 evidence with no demonstrated impact on reported growth yet. Meanwhile, Monday.com at $1.23B growing 27% has defied base-rate deceleration expectations. The $100K+ customer growth at 15% is a positive signal for Asana but represents the enterprise segment, which is slower to convert to reported revenue. Monday.com's multi-product conflation is a real analytical limitation -- work management segment growth could be lower -- but even a 3-4pp discount still leaves a gap above 15pp. The 7-month resolution window is insufficient for a structural acceleration to manifest in reported numbers.

Two independent paths could narrow the gap: Monday.com natural deceleration and Asana stabilization/re-acceleration. Monday.com at $1.23B is approaching the scale where SaaS companies historically begin meaningful deceleration -- the base rate for companies at this revenue level is 18-22% growth, suggesting Monday.com may be 5-9pp above trend. If Monday.com reports even one quarter at 23-24%, combined with Asana stabilizing at 10-11%, the gap drops to 12-14pp. The committee noted Monday.com's total revenue conflates multiple products -- if work management is growing at 22-24% rather than 27%, the true gap is already closer to 13-15pp. Against this, Asana's trajectory shows continued deceleration (9% run rate in FY2026 vs 11% FY2025), and the $100K+ customer growth at 15% has not translated to revenue acceleration. The Moat Mapper's 2-4 year deterioration timeline implies the gap persists in the near term. I weight the Monday.com deceleration path as more likely than Asana acceleration, giving this ~28% probability.

The arithmetic is unforgiving. For the gap to narrow below 15pp from the current 18pp run-rate, Asana needs to gain ~3pp of relative growth. The committee established Asana's trajectory as consistently decelerating -- every single measurement period shows lower growth: 47%, 25%, 19%, 11%, 9%. There is zero inflection evidence in reported numbers. The enterprise pivot is E0-E1 evidence that the committee explicitly noted lacks quantitative support. Meanwhile, Monday.com's growth has been remarkably stable in the high-20s despite scale. The resolution requires comparing most recent quarterly earnings by September 2026 -- this means we are looking at Q4 FY2026/Q1 FY2027 for Asana and a similar period for Monday.com. Given Asana's FY2026 is tracking at 9%, achieving 12%+ in Q4 FY2026 or Q1 FY2027 would require a dramatic reversal with no current evidence supporting it. Even if Monday.com moderates to 25%, Asana at 9% yields a 16pp gap -- still above 15pp. I assign lower probability with higher confidence because the mathematical constraints are tight.

The numbers tell a clear story: Asana is decelerating and Monday.com is not. For the gap to narrow below 15pp, you need a ~3pp swing in 7 months. The most plausible path is Monday.com decelerating -- at $1.23B, gravity eventually wins. SaaS companies at this scale typically grow 18-22%. If Monday.com drops to 24% and Asana stabilizes at 10%, you get a 14pp gap (YES). But Monday.com has shown no deceleration signals yet, and Asana has shown no stabilization. The multi-product conflation is a real wildcard -- if Monday.com work management segment is only growing 22%, the gap is already near threshold. But this is speculative without segment data. The $100K+ customer growth at 15% is Asana's best data point, but it has not converted to revenue growth acceleration. Probability: below 30% but not negligible given Monday.com scale deceleration risk.

Asana's growth deceleration is not cyclical -- it is structural. Customer count is contracting as SMB churns, and the enterprise pivot has not produced visible results in revenue. The $100K+ cohort growing 15% is encouraging but insufficient to move the aggregate needle when the broader base is shrinking. Monday.com, by contrast, is executing a platform expansion strategy (CRM, Dev, etc.) that actually supports sustained growth even at scale because they are expanding TAM, not just penetrating existing TAM. The committee's observation that Monday.com total revenue conflates products is important but cuts both ways -- the platform strategy is precisely what sustains high growth. For resolution, both companies would need to report earnings by September 2026. Timing risk: if one company reports late, we use whatever is most recent, which adds noise. But on fundamentals, I see no credible path to <15pp gap without a discontinuous event (major contract win, competitive exit, etc.) that is not in the analysis facts.

I am giving slightly more weight to two underappreciated factors. First, the committee explicitly flagged that Monday.com's 27% growth includes CRM, Dev, and other products beyond work management -- the true work management growth rate is unknown and could be materially lower. If work management is growing at 20-22%, the actual competitive gap is already 11-13pp, which would resolve YES even without any change. Second, Monday.com's FY2025 growth rate of 27% may itself be benefiting from platform expansion tailwinds that mask deceleration in the core work management business. The resolution uses total revenue growth, however, so if Monday.com continues to report blended rates, this point is moot. My lower confidence reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the multi-product conflation materially distorts the gap. I assign 30% to account for this analytical blind spot.

Current gap is 18pp on run-rate basis. Asana decelerating consistently. Monday.com sustaining high-20s growth. Need 3pp+ narrowing in 7 months. No evidence of inflection from either side. Base case: gap stays 16-20pp. Small chance Monday.com natural deceleration helps, giving ~22% probability.

Asana's growth curve (47% to 9%) shows no bottom. Monday.com at 27% shows no top. Both trends point to widening gap, not narrowing. The $100K+ cohort at 15% is a lagging indicator. Even optimistic scenario (Monday 24%, Asana 10%) yields 14pp -- barely YES. Pessimistic scenario (Monday 27%, Asana 7%) yields 20pp. Probability skews heavily toward NO.

The multi-product conflation issue noted by the committee is the main reason this is not lower. If Monday.com's work management is growing 22%, gap is already near 13pp threshold. But resolution uses total reported revenue growth, which is blended. Unless Monday.com starts segment reporting, the blended 27% rate is what we compare. At blended rate, gap stays wide. Assigning 24% mostly for Monday.com base-rate deceleration risk.