Will Dustin Moskovitz make additional open-market purchases of ASAN shares in H1 2026 (January-June)?

The resolution bar is very low — only ONE purchase in 6 months. Moskovitz has demonstrated sustained buying over multiple years ($350M private placement + $25M+ open-market), takes $1 salary with wealth concentrated in ASAN stock, and explicitly stated investment intent in SC 13D/A. Data shows active buying through early Feb 2026 (already within the resolution window). With stock still depressed after 32% CY2025 decline, value-oriented buying motivation remains strong. Even accounting for potential target allocation saturation after $375M+ invested, the probability of ZERO purchases in 6 months from someone with this pattern is low.

Buying was active through Feb 2, 2026 — already partway into the resolution window, so the pattern hasn't stopped yet. Key risk is target allocation saturation after $375M+ total investment. However, the company's $97.5M remaining buyback authorization (which committee determined reflects his preferences as 58% voting controller) suggests continued conviction. At $1 salary with wealth concentrated in ASAN, he has structural reason to accumulate during depressed prices. The CEO-to-Chair transition could subtly shift patterns, but committee found no indication of reduced engagement. Risk of a complete 6-month pause is modest but non-trivial.

Must weigh the strong continuation pattern against genuine risks. The $375M+ already invested is enormous personal exposure, creating legitimate allocation concern. Regulatory trading windows restrict when Moskovitz can trade. However, SC 13D/A language about 'investment purposes' and 'active role' combined with the extremely low threshold (one purchase in six months) makes YES much more likely than NO. Historical multi-year pattern, stated regulatory filing intent, concentrated wealth position, and depressed stock prices all point toward continuation. The CEO-to-Chair transition did not reduce engagement per committee assessment.

The data is compelling for YES. Moskovitz buying pattern spans years across multiple vehicles (private placement, open-market), data shows activity through early Feb 2026 (within the resolution window), stock remains depressed after 32% CY2025 decline, his stated intent in regulatory filings is to hold and increase position, and the resolution bar is just one purchase in 6 months. The only meaningful counter-argument is allocation saturation after $375M+, but given his role as Board Chair with 58% voting control and $1 salary structure, his conviction in the platform appears undiminished.

Strong YES lean. A 6-month window with a one-purchase threshold is extremely permissive. The real question is: what's the probability Moskovitz makes ZERO open-market purchases in 6 months? Given active buying through Feb 2, 2026, historically demonstrated multi-year buying pattern, $1 salary structure concentrating his wealth in ASAN, and explicit SC 13D/A filing stating investment intent, the probability of total cessation is low. The main risk vector is some personal liquidity event or change of strategy we can't observe, but nothing in the context suggests this. Raimondi selling is a negative signal but doesn't affect Moskovitz's personal buying decisions.

Stock fell 32% in CY2025 and Moskovitz has been buying into weakness consistently. The CEO-to-Chair transition is the biggest pattern-break risk, but committee assessed no indication of reduced engagement. SC 13D/A filed Nov 2023 states ongoing investment intent. With data showing purchases through early Feb 2026, continuation into the remaining 5 months is highly probable. Pricing allocation saturation risk at approximately 10-15% and unknown/unobservable risk at approximately 5%. The committee's unresolved debate about governance signal vs economic conviction doesn't affect the prediction — both interpretations predict continued buying.

Multi-year buying pattern ($350M private placement + $25M+ open-market) combined with $1 salary structure, active purchases through Feb 2026, and a 6-month window requiring only one purchase yields high YES probability. Main risk is target allocation reached after $375M+ total investment. But depressed stock price and stated investment intent in SC 13D/A argue against complete cessation.

The resolution threshold is extremely low — just one purchase in 6 months. Moskovitz has been buying consistently for years and was doing so through early February 2026, already within the resolution window. Unless something dramatic changes (personal liquidity crisis, material change in company outlook), continuation is very likely. The 58% voting control and Board Chair role maintain his strategic engagement with the company.

Strong continuation pattern, depressed prices providing value-buying motivation, stated SC 13D/A intent, concentrated personal wealth in ASAN, and low resolution threshold all point to YES. Risk of complete 6-month pause after $375M+ total investment is non-trivial — allocation saturation and regulatory trading window constraints are real. Slightly lower estimate to account for these tail risks, but YES remains heavily favored.