Will Asana report $100K+ customer count growth of 10% or higher YoY in Q4 FY2026?

The math strongly favors YES. Q3 FY2026 showed ~835 $100K+ customers, already well above the ~799 threshold needed for 10% YoY growth over Q4 FY2025's 726 base. For this market to resolve NO, Asana would need to LOSE approximately 36 net enterprise customers in a single quarter — unprecedented given the consistent quarterly additions (~44/~50/~15 across Q1-Q3 FY2026). Enterprise NRR at 96% implies modest contraction in existing accounts, but this is already reflected in the Q3 figure. The CFO's emphasis on $50K-$100K pipeline 'exceptional strength' and Q4's typical budget-flush seasonality further support continued growth. RPO at $500.9M (+23% YoY) provides multi-year forward visibility into enterprise commitments. The only scenario for failure is a catastrophic enterprise churn event — mass cancellations or discontinuation of the metric — which I estimate at <8% probability.

The structural math makes this highly likely to resolve YES. At ~835 $100K+ customers in Q3 versus a Q4 FY2025 base of 726, Asana has a 36-customer buffer above the 10% threshold. The question is whether net enterprise customers could decline by 36+ in a single quarter. Historical progression shows steady additions: approximately +44 (Q1), +50 (Q2), +15 (Q3). Even the weakest quarter (Q3 at +15) still added customers net. Enterprise NRR at 96% means some existing customer contraction, but this has been overwhelmed by new logos and upsells throughout FY2026. The resolution criteria include a 'discontinues this metric' failure mode — Asana has reported this metric every quarter and there is no indication of discontinuation, though I assign a small probability (~2%) to this edge case. The primary risk is a one-off large enterprise cohort churning simultaneously, which I estimate as unlikely but nonzero (~6-8%) given competitive pressure from Monday.com and Microsoft alternatives noted by the Moat Mapper.

I'm examining the downside scenarios carefully. The Q4 FY2025 baseline was 726 customers, so 10% growth requires 799. Q3 FY2026 was ~835. For NO to prevail, we need net loss of 36+ enterprise customers in one quarter. What could cause this? (1) Massive enterprise churn: The Moat Mapper identifies narrow enterprise switching costs, but the 12-24 month competitive threat timeline from Monday.com/Microsoft extends well beyond this single quarter. (2) Reclassification: Asana could change the threshold definition, but mid-fiscal-year changes to reported metrics are extremely rare. (3) Metric discontinuation: Possible but unprecedented given consistent quarterly disclosure. (4) Unusual economic shock: No macro trigger evident for the quarter ending Jan 31, 2026. The unresolved debate about customer cohort revenue breakdown does not affect the count metric. The $50K-$100K pipeline 'exceptional strength' actually de-risks the growth threshold further since some will cross into $100K+ during Q4. I estimate 91% YES.

This is close to a mathematical certainty. Q3 FY2026 had ~835 enterprise customers. The 10% threshold is ~799. Asana would need to lose 36 net enterprise customers in Q4 — something that has never happened in their disclosed history. The enterprise NRR of 96% means slight contraction in existing accounts, but new additions have consistently outpaced this. The $50K-$100K feeder cohort showed 'exceptional strength' per CFO, and Q4 is seasonally strong. The only meaningful risk is metric discontinuation or redefinition, which I put at ~3%. This resolves YES with high confidence.

The numbers strongly favor YES. With ~835 at Q3 end and needing only ~799 for 10% growth, the buffer is significant. I'm slightly more cautious than pure math suggests because: (1) Q4 FY2026 earnings expected March 2 — could contain surprises, (2) enterprise NRR at 96% means existing base is contracting, (3) Q3 growth rate of +15 customers was notably lower than Q1 (+44) and Q2 (+50), suggesting possible deceleration in net additions. However, even extrapolating the Q3 pace of +15 additions, Q4 would be ~850, well above 799. The deceleration trend would need to reverse to net NEGATIVE for the first time. I assign ~12% to tail risks including metric changes, unusual churn, or reporting adjustments.

The enterprise customer count is a lagging indicator that has already crossed the threshold. At ~835 in Q3, Asana needs to stay above ~799 — essentially not losing more than 36 customers. The growth trajectory across FY2026 has been consistently positive (every quarter added net enterprise customers). RPO growth of 23% confirms multi-year enterprise commitments are building. The key cross-lens insight is that while the Moat Mapper flags narrow switching costs long-term, the Gravy Gauge's RPO data shows near-term enterprise stickiness. New CEO Rogers' enterprise background (ServiceNow/Rubrik) reinforces the enterprise-first strategy. I see ~10% probability of NO, mostly from extreme tail scenarios.

Q3 had ~835 enterprise customers. 10% growth needs ~799. The buffer is 36 customers — Asana would need unprecedented net losses to miss. Q4 seasonality helps. Very high probability YES.

Math is straightforward: ~835 vs ~799 threshold. Would need 36+ net losses in one quarter. Enterprise NRR at 96% means slight existing-customer contraction but net additions have been positive every quarter. Small risk from metric discontinuation or reporting change. Strongly favors YES.

Enterprise count already well past 10% growth threshold as of Q3. $50K-$100K pipeline feeding future $100K+ additions. RPO +23% confirms enterprise momentum. Only extreme churn or metric discontinuation prevents YES. 90% probability.